Mike Clelland had everything go his way to upset Chris Dorworth in 2012. To keep his seat representing Seminole County in the Florida House, Clelland will need to run the table once again.
Clelland was helped in 2012 since Dorworths name was in the news for all the wrong reasons, mostly over accusations about ethics. Despite being scheduled to take over as House speaker after the 2014 elections, Dorworth was ousted in 2012, losing to Clelland by 146 votes after a recount.
Soon after Clelland took his seat, Republican Scott Plakon targeted him. Plakon had served in the House but, after redistricting, set his sites on a swing seat representing parts of Orange and Seminole counties. With Dorworth outranking him in the House hierarchy, Plakon took one for the team, running for a much more competitive seat than the one Clelland won. Plakon lost out to Democrat Karen Castor Dentel but earned the goodwill of Republicans across Florida who are supporting his efforts to get back to Tallahassee.
Plakon has to like his chances against Clelland this time out which are much better than his odds to beat Castor Dentel last time out. Republicans usually do well in HD 29, making up 41 percent of the district while 33 percent are Democrats. Mitt Romney ran over Barack Obama here, beating him by 10 percent in 2012. Back in 2010, Rick Scott beat Alex Sink by a similar margin in what is now HD 29.
Both candidates have done well with fundraising. By Oct. 10, Plakon had raised almost $204,500, spent more than $152,150 and relied on almost $64,800 of in-kind donations. But Clelland isnt that far behind, having raised $193,000 and used $68,000 of in-kinds by Oct. 10. Plakon should expect a last-minute blitz since, by Oct. 10, Clelland had only spent $96,522, giving him almost $100,000 to use in the final weeks of the campaign.
Clelland will need to rely on that cash in his bank. A St. Pete Poll from earlier this month showed Plakon ahead by more than 20 percent.
Both sides have shown no hesitation in going on the attack and relying on their parties to help them out. Clelland argues Plakon is too conservative for the district. Plakon and his allies write Clelland off as a trial lawyer who works for John Morgan.
The districts makeup certainly favors Plakon. Unlike his ally Dorworth, Plakon is not hindered by ethics charges and scandals. He should be able to flip this seat for Republicans. But Clelland has enough in the bank to launch an all-out attack against Plakon, tightening this race up. But Plakon should be able to handle whatever Clelland throws at him. Right now, Plakon looks headed back to Tallahassee despite his loss in 2012.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
