First elected in 2010 to replace term-limited Larry Cretul, Perry was moved into a district where Democrats have a solid edge over Republicans in registration. Perry, a businessman who ran a roofing company, was largely unknown in HD 21 by the time redistricting was over. Luckily for Perry, so was his Democratic opponent Andrew Morey. Perry won with 57 percent against the underfunded Morey but he can never feel too secure in this district which contains all of Dixie and Gilchrist counties and part of Alachua County.
Democrats are starting to decline a bit in the district but they still have the advantage. Back in 2012, Democrats made up 48 percent of the district while 33 percent were Republicans and 19 percent stood outside the two major parties. Democrats dropped a bit over the last two years in HD 21; now they make up 44 percent of the district. Republicans eased up to 34 percent with the rest being independents.
Perry actually ran ahead of Mitt Romney last time out. The Republican presidential candidate took 53 percent here, beating Barack Obama by 6 percent. But the right Democrat can win in this area. Alex Sink did well against Rick Scott in what became HD 21, beating the Republican here by 8 percent back in 2010.
Despite the swing nature of the district, Perry has not moved to the middle. Instead -- on issues like abortion, immigration, the economy, gun rights and education -- Perry has been a reliable conservative in Tallahassee.
Perry has done well in fundraising and Gainesville is not as expensive as most other media markets across Florida. By Oct. 3, he had raised more than $254,700 and $60,000 of that came after Sept. 13. Perry had spent almost $116,200 of that and relied on more than $42,500 of in-kind donations.
But Perry has a Democratic opponent who has been able to finance his campaign out of his own pocket to some extent. Jon Uman, a pretty well-established attorney in the area, had dumped $78,500 into his own campaign and raised almost $81,700 by Oct. 3. He has also used more than $25,000 of in-kind donations. So far, Uman has kept his powder dry, barely spending $25,000, giving him plenty of cash for a last-minute blitz of the district.
Uman has been trying to woo the often conflicting part of the district. A vocal champion of the environment, Uman often goes left on social issues -- including backing same-sex marriage -- which would play well in Alachua County with its ties to the University of Florida. But Uman has also been a sharp critic of using private companies to run prisons, a major issue in the more rural parts of the district.
Amendment 2 on medical marijuana could be a major factor in this race, bringing out younger voters tied to UF. This could pump out turnout for Uman and, with so much still left in the bank, he should be able to make a strong impression in the final weeks of the campaign.
But Perry is a proven winner here. Independents and even Democrats in the district will often cross lines to vote for him and other Republicans. Amendment 2 and his ample war chest will help Uman in the coming weeks, but the Republican incumbent has the edge here.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
