As he runs for a second term in the Florida House, Jose Javier Rodruez faces a very different situation in Miami-Dade than he encountered two years ago.
Republicans are united against the freshman Democrat, something that wasnt the case in 2012. Rodruez skated to an easy victory in the Democratic primary back in 2012 while Alex Dz de la Portilla, despite his well-known last name and years in the Legislature, barely survived on the Republican side. Rodriguez attacked Dz de la Portilla hard, painting the Republican as an insider who had been in Tallahassee for too long. When the smoke cleared, Rodruez won with 54 percent.
Rodruez had a quiet first term -- no real surprise since he is a freshman and in the minority party -- but he has been off and running to keep his seat in the House. Prominent Democrats like Bob Graham, Manny Diaz and Maurice Ferr(whose granddaughter married Rodruez) have been front and center for Rodruez as he runs for a second term. But Rodruez has also been able to reel in the support of Republicans like Tom Regalado and independents like Xavier Suez. Thats helped him build an impressive war chest for a freshman Democrat, having raised more than $284,300, relying on more than $79,700 of in-kind donations and spending almost $201,850 by Oct. 10.
But Republicans are feeling good about their candidate: attorney Daniel Diaz Leyva. With deep ties to the community and having led Jose Felix Diazs House campaign, Diaz Leyva is a favorite of the GOP leadership. As well as Rodruez has done with fundraising, Diaz Leyva has done even better. By Oct. 10, the Republican had brought in almost $357,500, used more than $46,600 of in-kind donations and spent more than $296,800.
Besides facing a major financial disadvantage, Rodruez has his work cut out for him on other fronts as he looks to win a second term. Republicans have a slight edge in registrations, making up 35 percent of the voters here while 33 percent are Democrats. Independents are on the rise in this area, moving up from 27 percent in 2012 to 32 percent this time out.
This is a swing district -- both Rick Scott and Alex Sink took 49 percent in 2010 -- but Democrats are more likely to stay home during off-year elections than they are in presidential contests. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 8 percent here in 2012, for example, and Rodruez benefited from more Democrats voting. That wont be the case this time out.
Diaz Leyva had some good news last week. A St. Pete Polls survey taken for SaintPetersBlog last week showed the Republican up by 5 percent over the Democrat incumbent. But thats within the margin of error and earlier polls showed the Republican with a larger lead.
This one looks close but Diaz Leyva is the favorite in the final days of the campaign. He has the cash advantage, of course -- no small thing in South Florida -- but he also has a united GOP behind him. Diaz Leyva simply doesnt have the baggage that Dz de la Portilla brought with him last time out and that should help him pick up this seat for the GOP.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
