GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnells (R-Ky.) chances of toppling U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., dimmed a little this week. In recent days, former Gov. Marc Racicot of Montana announced that he would not run for the Senate seat currently held by retiring U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., and a major Democratic candidate is running to defend the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va. Right now, Democrats control the chamber with 54 senators while there are 46 Republicans.
Racicot, who led the Republican National Committee and chaired George W. Bushs re-election effort in 2004, said on Monday that he would not enter the contest. Had he jumped in, Racicot would have been a strong candidate for the GOP though there are other candidates already in the race. Two state legislators -- Champ Edmunds and Matt Rosendale -- are currently running for the Republican nomination. U.S. Rep. Steve Daines continues to consider entering the contest and, on Monday, Racicot said he would encourage Montanas lone congressman to set his eyes on the Senate seat. In a sign that Daines is expected to run, there are some Republicans already running for the House seat and others, including Edmunds and Rosendale, are mentioned as possible candidates.
After former Gov. Brian Schweitzer declined to enter the race, the Democratic bench in Montana looked thin, though two statewide officeholders -- state Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau and state Auditor Monica Lindeen -- thought about entering the race but neither is likely to do so. Rancher Dirk Adams is currently running for the Democratic nomination while Lt. Gov. John Walsh, a retired Army general, and Montana Supreme Court Justice Brian Morris have left the door open to entering the primary.
There is a possible wild card in the race in John Bohlinger. Despite serving in both chambers of the Montana Legislature as a Republican, Bohlinger, who is 77, was lieutenant governor under Schweitzer and is now an independent. With ties to both parties and now an independent, Bohlinger could complicate matters in the race.
Between Montana leaning Republican in national politics and the GOPs bench, Democrats will be hard-pressed to keep the seat. But Racicot would have been a near lock to win the seat for Republicans. With Racicot staying out, things are tougher for the GOP. While not a slam dunk for Republicans, Montana should provide them an excellent opportunity to pick up a Senate seat.
Republicans are optimistic about taking the seat currently held by Rockefeller in West Virginia. While Democrats do well in state elections, West Virginia continues to trend red in national politics. U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., is the favorite to win the Republican nomination despite some opposition from the tea party and conservatives. So far, Capito has been able to avoid major primary opposition and faces a field of Republican opponents who have struggled in recent elections.
But Capito drew a major opponent in the Democratic field this week. West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant jumped into the race and, like Capito, she has weak primary opposition. While Capito remains a favorite, Tennant, who officially entered the contest on Tuesday, makes this race more competitive for Democrats.
The Democratic bench also looks thin in South Dakota where U.S. Tim Johnson, the only member of that party to currently hold a statewide elected office, is bowing out in 2014. Republicans have a deeper bench once again in a strongly red state. Former Gov. Mike Rounds, current state Senate GOP Whip Larry Rhoden and state Rep. Stace Nelson are already running for the Republican nomination while former state Rep. Mark Venner is thinking about getting in. The only Democrat in the race is Rick Weiland, a former FEMA official who ran for Congress twice and lost both times. Look for Republicans to pick up this seat in 2014.
Democrats, on the other hand, can only count on being the favorites to pick up one Senate seat currently held by Republicans. Newark Mayor Cory Booker is expected to easily win in November and win a seat for the Democrats. Appointed to the Senate after the death of Frank Lautenberg earlier this year, U.S. Sen. Jeff Chisea, R-N.J., is not looking to stay in Washington.
But New Jersey is the only real slam-dunk opportunity for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat. Democrats have high hopes for Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn, to win a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia but she will be swimming against a strong Republican tide in that state. U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn, will face tea party challenges in the primary but Democrats are not well-positioned to pick up that seat. McConnell could also be plagued by a tea party challenge in Kentucky, though he should be a favorite in the primary and over Democratic hopeful Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes.
The main battlegrounds in 2014 will all be for seats currently held by Democrats in often hostile territory. Democrats will have to keep open seats in Michigan and Iowa left vacant by the retirements of Carl Levin and Tom Harkin, though both states have a blue lean. But things get dicey with four Democrats holding seats in red seats seeking re-election in 2014 -- Mark Begich in Alaska, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Mark Pryor in Arkansas. All four Democrat incumbents should have tight contests in states that are, to some degree or another, usually Republican at the national level.
Republicans need 51 votes to control the Senate while Democrats can stay at 50 votes and rely on Vice President Joe Biden to break ties and keep control of the chamber. With the Democrats expected to flip New Jersey while Republicans are near certain to win South Dakota and favored to win Montana and West Virginia, the GOP is close to controlling the Senate with 48 votes. If Republicans defeat three out of four endangered Democratic incumbents holding seats in traditionally red states, the GOP will win the Senate. Its tough, to be sure, but it is manageable -- especially considering where the battlegrounds will be.
But things have grown tougher for Republicans. Resources that could have been used against Hagan or Pryor or other Democratic incumbents could now be headed to Montana or West Virginia. For the moment, Harry Reid has a little more breathing room.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
