Newly released Census data show that Florida's Gulf Coast has grown more rapidly than any other coastal region of the country. It's a population shift that has the Obama administration on the horns of a dilemma.
Six of the eight fastest-growing coastal counties in the United States from 1960-2008 were on the west coast of Florida. Their rank, population and percentage increase:
1. Collier: 315,258, up 1,901 percent.
4. Hernando: 171,689, up 1,432 percent.
5. Citrus: 141,416, up 1,426 percent.
6. Pasco: 471,028, up 1,181 percent.
7. Charlotte: 150,060, up 1,092 percent.
8. Lee: 593,163, up 988 percent.
The nation's second-fastest-growing coastal county was Flagler, on Florida's northeast coast (91,247, up 1,898 percent). No. 3 was Mantanuska Borough, Alaska (85,458, up 1,547 percent).
Comprising just 254 of 3,142 U.S. counties, coastal counties grew faster than the nation at large. And America's Gulf counties posted the most robust growth rate -- a 150 percent population gain that doubled the national average.
Florida's Gulf Coast counties led that growth curve with a combination of natural population gains and, more importantly, domestic and international migration.
From 2000-2008, the state's coastal counties added 771,834 via domestic migration, 582,384 from international arrivals and 248,993 through indigenous population growth.
No Florida Gulf Coast breakdown was available, but the Census Bureau noted that, nationally, Gulf housing units increased 246 percent vs. a 98 percent gain on the Atlantic coast.
Combining Florida's Gulf and Atlantic coasts, the state now accounts for 16 percent of the country's coastline population.
As oil smears the Gulf Coast, political analysts say the Obama administration faces a difficult choice between Florida's ever-enlarging Gulf electorate who generally oppose offshore drilling, and Louisiana, whose economy is closely tied to petroleum and whose residents oppose any moratorium that would hamper the industry.
With President Obama wrapping up another swing through the Gulf, including a stop in Florida on Tuesday, analysts say future drilling decisions come down to politics vs. economics -- Florida's electoral cache vs. Louisiana's fiscal needs.
U.S. Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite -- who represents the Gulf counties of Hernando, Citrus, Pasco and Levy -- is among the Floridians who have come to oppose further drilling since the Deepwater Horizon blowup.
"The moratorium should probably stay in place until we have assurances that there is technology that would ensure this does not happen again," the Republican stated last week.
A Quinnipiac poll reported last week that Floridians oppose more oil drilling, 51-42 percent. Before the spill, 66 percent supported drilling.
Gov. Charlie Crist and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who both reside on Florida's West Coast, have discussed the need for a special legislative session to pass a constitutional amendment banning offshore drilling.
"If (the spill) doesnt give you pause, nothing would. I think its really changed the appetite, if you will, as it relates to oil drilling certainly in the Gulf of Mexico," said Crist, who hails from St. Petersburg.
The Republican-turned-independent governor, who is running for U.S. Senate, said he was considering calling a special session in July.
State GOP lawmakers -- including those on Florida's West Coast -- have been cool to the idea, noting that Florida has laws on the books against drilling in coastal waters.
But there has been a recent groundswell of support for a session that could address the financial hardships facing the state's fishing trade and beach-centric tourism industry.
While Florida braces for the impact of the BP oil spill, the 2010 Census is expected to show the growing political clout of the state's Gulf Coast counties. The Census numbers are used to redraw legislative and congressional districts -- and if trends hold, the growing Gulf counties could see an increase in their percentage of seats.
Demographers forecast that Florida -- rivaling New York to become the third largest state -- will gain two congressional seats by 2012, bringing its total to 27.
Despite their rapid growth, only one of the West Coast counties cracked the list of the nation's most dense coastal centers. Pinellas County ranked 15th with an average of 3,324 persons per acre.
Overall, population densities in Florida's coastal counties grew from 129 persons per acre in 1960 to 467 persons per acre in 2008.
Though they didn't rate among the fastest-growing coastal enclaves in terms of percentages, three densely populated South Florida counties -- Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach -- each gained more than 1 million residents in the past eight years.
Even with recent out-migrations from such foreclosure-ridden areas as Lehigh Acres in Lee County, and the state's real-estate slowdown in general, Florida's Gulf Coast counties continue to be population magnets.
On the down side, one demographer predicts that coastal growth could slow or stop in the wake of BP's record oil spill.
"The Exxon Valdez oil spill had a big impact on the tourism and fishing industries in Alaska, and I'd expect to see a similar impact on the Gulf states," said Mark Mather, associate vice president at the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit group.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
