Florida claims its high-school graduation rate rose to 79 percent this year, but, once again, other computations suggest otherwise.
Gov. Charlie Crist touted the latest state Department of Education statistics that showed a fifth straight year of rising graduation percentages. The biggest gains were registered by minority students, the DOE said.
Floridas improved graduation rate clearly shows that our reform efforts are making a difference in our schools, and most importantly, for our students, the governor enthused.
Independent analyses are more inclined to credit creative math for the state's purported 2.5-point gain this year.
Education Week's "Diplomas Count" report slams Florida for having 90,488 "nongraduates" in 2010, the third most of any state. The study listed seven Florida school districts among its 25 "epicenters" of crisis.
Contrary to the DOE's claims of minority gains, the state had no districts in Ed Week's gallery of "urban over-achievers" whose grad rates were better than expected.
The disconnect between Florida's sunny statistics and downbeat numbers from other sources sparks an annual debate over what constitutes "graduation." That seemingly simple definition is left to each state to determine, and the results can vary wildly.
Hoping to put an end to this statistical sideshow, the U.S. Department of Education has ordered states to conform to one standardized set of parameters starting next year. Some experts believe that will lower Florida's graduation rate -- perhaps precipitously.
In recent years, Florida has boasted that its grad rates topped the U.S. average. Based on those computations, many local school districts, primarily in smaller counties, can claim to exceed the state average. The numbers are reflexively regurgitated without question by daily newspapers.
Bob Wise, president of the national Alliance for Excellent Education, called Florida's report "good news" and hailed the state as "a national leader in developing comprehensive data systems since the days of Jeb Bush."
Yet this pyramid of success crumbles when independent analysts dig into Florida's stats. For example, in 2007, the latest year for which comparisons were available, Education Week computed Florida's high-school graduation rate at 62.1 percent. The state set it at 70.3 percent.
"Some of the state numbers don't make sense," says Christopher Swanson, vice president of research and development at the Maryland-based Editorial Projects in Education.
While concurring that Florida's graduation rates have been climbing, he pegs the actual percentage gain at roughly half of what the state claims. Those increases could turn into decreases when the federal rules kick in.
Getting a jump on the impending rule change, Indiana abandoned its "cohort rate" model, which was similar to one used in Florida's current graduation computation. With the switch, Indianapolis schools' graduation rate was cut in half, Swanson said.
Meantime, he says "all independent" analyses show Florida's rate "considerably lower than 79 percent."
Disagreements on grad rates are not idle academic debates or arithmetic parlor games.
"For graduation rates to be useful, they must be reliable, consistent across states and comparable," the Washington, D.C.-based Alliance for Excellent Education states in its latest report. "Over the last few years, independent researchers have confirmed that many more of the nation's youth are dropping out during high school than had been reported, and they have issued estimates that most experts agree are far more accurate than those of most government sources."
Low graduation rates yield devastating financial consequences. According to the Alliance, dropouts from just one high school class, 2008, will cost the United States an estimated $319 billion in lost wages over their lifetime.
That devaluation of human capital hits home in Florida, which has historically lagged in competing for higher-skill, higher-wage jobs, largely because its employment base is so scholastically tenuous.
Crist, a lame-duck governor and former state education commissioner, tries to put a happy face on the situation by trumpeting the DOE's numbers. But no amount of spin can unwind the reality that nearly 100,000 young Floridians failed to earn a high-school diploma this year.
When the "real" graduation rates come to light next year, Gov. Rick Scott and the Legislature will demand answers, and solutions. One place to start is Florida's bloated requirement of 24 credits to obtain a "standard" high school diploma.
Tied with five other states for the highest credit requirement in the country, Florida all but invites chronic credit deficiencies that fuel dropout rates. Well-intended initiatives to offer a streamlined 18-credit alternative for college-prep and workplace-ready students have been subverted or strangled by educrats who crassly saw it as a revenue reducer (i.e., less mandatory seat time in class equals fewer per-pupil dollars).
Ultimately, of course, schools lose their per-capita payments when youngsters quit coming to class. But as long as the DOE can cook the numbers to claim best-ever graduation rates, who's the wiser?
Adding to the contradictions, on the same day Crist & Co. trumpeted the high-school graduation numbers, the National Assessment for Educational Progress, in a little-noticed announcement, reported that Floridas high-school seniors continue to perform below national averages in both reading and math.
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Reach Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
