A new Rasmussen survey reports that 83 percent of likely GOP primary voters will vote for the Republican presidential candidate, even if their favorite does not capture the partys nomination.
What's more, 77 percent of those likely voters think every one of the party's presidential hopefuls would do a better job than Barack Obama.
The Anybody-But-Obama ticket leaves just 7 percent saying they will vote for the president and 5 percent opting for a third-party candidate.
That's a switch from 2008, when GOP defections and apathy doomed John McCain's campaign.
Despite early endorsements from three Florida congressmen, it's far too soon to say that the 2012 GOP favorite in the Sunshine State will be Mitt Romney.
Romney, as expected, picked up the support of U.S. Reps. Ander Crenshaw, Connie Mack and Tom Rooney this week. He also landed the formal endorsement of state Sen. John Thrasher. All had backed the former Massachusetts governor's presidential bid in 2008 and he helped boost their fundraising for 2010.
But support from party leaders doesn't ensure that the rank and file will follow, especially in an age of widespread voter skepticism and tea party insurgency.
"It was a wonderful idea when the party elites picked Charlie Crist, wasn't it?" Charlotte County tea party leader Robin Stublen asked sarcastically.
Stublen's advice to the GOP brass?
"Just stay out of the primaries," he says.
Romney, in the view of some party activists, didn't help himself by announcing he would skip the Florida GOP's Presidency 5 straw poll set for September.
And he opened himself up to attack by Jon Huntsman, who has said he will set up his national campaign headquarters in Florida. Set to formally announce his presidential bid on Tuesday, the former Utah governor has said he would participate in P5.
Andy Palmer, executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, called Romney's decision to blow off P5 "unfortunate."
"With thousands of activists signed up to attend, the event would have been the perfect opportunity to communicate his message directly to Republican voters in the most important swing state in the nation. However, we look forward to hosting a great event for the rest of the Republican candidates this September in Orlando," Palmer said in a statement.
Whichever way the field shakes out, the Rasmussen survey points to greater solidarity among Republicans.
Some 80 percent or more of primary voters in nearly every demographic category said they intend to vote for the GOP candidate, even if their favorite does not win the partys nomination.
"Perhaps surprisingly, tea party members are more committed to supporting the GOP candidate than other Republicans," the Rasmussen survey reported Friday.
"Among GOP primary voters who are tea party members, 92 percent will vote for the Republican candidate even if their favorite falls short of the nomination.
"Among non-tea party members, only 78 percent are that committed to the Republican candidate," the poll stated.
Danita Kilkullen, head of Tea Party Fort Lauderdale, told Sunshine State News, "I pray I do not have to hold my nose and vote for another 'McCain,' but no matter who wins the nomination, that will be my vote. That is the mantra within our tea party for most members."
Scott Rasmussen, whose company directed the survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters, said the outsized influence of tea party activists will have an impact on the primary and caucus process.
"It's hard to see any Republican winning the nomination unless Sarah Palin is at least somewhat supportive," said Rasmussen, noting the influence of the tea party favorite.
Henry Kelley, head of the Fort Walton Beach Tea Party, said, "The buzz around candidates is that no one has yet stood out.Some believe this indicates lesser candidates, but I think we have learned to pay attention to the actions, and not to fall for 'hope and change' advertising.
"Back in 1992, no one 'stood out,' and the belief was a small-state governor named Bill Clinton stood no chance against an incumbent president," Kelley recalled.
Kelley said he's not convinced that Romney hurt himself by passing up the P5 straw poll in Orlando. And the Rasmussen poll reinforced the notion that Republican solidarity will prevail, even as the field of candidates grows and shrinks.
While Romney continues to lead in the polls and in the fundraising race, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., surged into second place following her Monday night entry into the campaign.
The founder of the tea party caucus in the House, Bachmann stands to inherit Palin's base if the Alaska governor does not pursue the nomination.
Yet Bachmann's challenges to party orthodoxy -- such as her vote against the Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout and her call to abolish the Environmental Protection Agency -- can discomfit established party leaders who take more moderate positions.
Meantime, a plurality of Republican primary voters told Rasmussen it would be good for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, another Beltway critic, to jump into the presidential fray.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.
