Republicans want to win back the U.S. Senate in 2014 and they can help themselves out by winning two special elections being held for open seats in the Northeast later this year. Polls released Monday show the Republicans are in striking distance of winning a contest in Massachusetts later this month but picking up the seat in New Jersey come October might be tough -- especially if Newark Mayor Cory Booker is the Democratic nominee.
Polls released Monday give Congressman Ed Markey a reason to sweat in the battle for the open Senate seat in Massachusetts up for grabs on June 25. Earlier polls showed Markey with a double-digit lead, but two polls released on Monday show the Democratic congressman with a smaller margin over Republican challenger Gabriel Gomez in the special election for the seat vacated when John Kerry became secretary of state.
Suffolk University released a poll showing Markey with 48 percent and Gomez with 41 percent, with the rest undecided or backing minor candidates.
Ed Markey continues to lead but the margin has dwindled, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, on Monday. Markeys core ballot test number has fallen below 50 percent and recent Obama administration scandals, especially the Associated Press phone records scrutiny, have touched a nerve with likely voters who are holding back or no longer supporting Markey and President Obama with the same intensity.
The poll of 500 likely Massachusetts voters was taken from June 6-9 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.
Meanwhile, another poll released on Monday shows Markey with an even smaller lead. Republican pollster McLaughlin and Associates released a poll with Markey leading with 45 percent and Gomez right behind him with 44 percent. That poll finds Gomez in solid shape with 48 percent seeing the Republican as favorable and 27 percent viewing him as unfavorable. Markey is treading water with 42 percent viewing the veteran Democrat congressman as favorable and the same percentage of voters seeing him as unfavorable.
With less than three weeks to go to Election Day, Gabriel Gomez has the momentum in the race, pollster John McLaughlin insisted. Gomezs high favorable ratings will be a strong asset over Markeys high unfavorable ratings in this neck-and-neck race."
The poll of 400 likely Massachusetts voters was taken from June 5-6 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
Republicans can certainly compete in Massachusetts on occasion. Look at victories in recent years for William Weld and Mitt Romney. Republican Scott Brown won the special election for Ted Kennedys Senate seat back in 2010. But Democrats have the advantage in the Bay State and no other pollster is showing the race as tight as McLaughlin is. While Gomez is closing the gap, this is an uphill battle for the Republicans.
Over in New Jersey, where the special election for the seat opened by the death of Democrat Frank Lautenberg will take place in October, a new poll shows Republicans have a chance if Booker is defeated in the primary -- but it also finds Booker with a commanding lead overthe other Democratic candidates.
A poll from Quinnipiac University released Monday finds Booker far ahead of his Democratic rivals. With 53 percent, Booker crushes two congressmen -- Rush Holt and Frank Pallone -- while 23 percent are undecided. Holt takes 10 percent and Pallone garners 9 percent. The poll was taken before New Jersey state Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver jumped in the race.
All of the Democrats have leads over Republican Steve Lonegan but Bookers is far more impressive. Booker routs Lonegan, 52 percent to 27 percent. Pallone is ahead 39 percent to 29 percent while Holt appears the weakest Democrat, beating Lonegan by only 36 percent to 31 percent.
"It's Newark Mayor Cory Booker in a runaway in this first look at the special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat held by the late Frank Lautenberg," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Monday. "Who are those other guys? The record shows that Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are big in their districts, but statewide no one knows them.
"Steve Lonegan gets the close-to-one-third Republican vote against any of the other three. He's up there with Pallone and Holt on the anonymity scale," Carroll continued. "Two cautionary notes: Booker has the recognition but does he have -- as the two Democratic congressmen do -- an organization? What effect will state Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver have on our next poll?"
National Republicans often make noise about doing more in New Jersey but they havet carried it in a presidential election since 1988. Theyve had their chances to be sure. Despite being severely outspent, Bob Franks lost to Jon Corzine in the 2000 Senate election by only 3 percent. Still, the only New Jersey Republicans who have held a Senate seat were appointed -- Jeffrey Chisea was appointed last week by Gov. Chris Christie and Nicholas Brady, best known for being Treasury secretary under Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, was appointed for a brief tenure in 1982. This poll offers little hope that a Republican will be able to pick up this seat if, as seems very likely, Booker is the nominee.
The poll of 858 New Jersey voters was taken from June 7-9 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. The survey of 306 Democrats had a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent.
Democrats are defending both seats and, while Republicans should have some hope based on Mondays polls, the GOP will be hard pressed to win either seat.
Tallahassee freelance political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
