Republicans might have to face the fact theyve maxed out the number of congressional seats theyre going to hold in Florida for the short-term.
Right now, Republicans control 17 of the 27 congressional seats in Florida. Most of them are pretty secure. Jeff Miller, Ted Yoho, Ander Crenshaw, Ron DeSantis, Bill Posey, Rich Nugent, Gus Bilirakis, Dennis Ross, Tom Rooney, Curt Clawson, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen might have to look over their shoulders for a primary challenge but they dont have much to fear from the Democrats come 2016. Democrats tried to take the fight to Vern Buchanan in 2012 but he held back Keith Fitzgerald and he should be fine in the short-term.
Dan Webster might be a tempting target for Democrats. Websters Central Florida district is getting more Democratic and he barely beat Val Demings in 2012. Webster won big last time out but Democrats do better here in presidential races. If the Democrats find a serious candidate, this seat is worth keeping an eye on, but Webster will be the favorite if he runs for a fourth term.
However, there are two promising targets for Democrats in Carlos Curbelo and David Jolly. Curbelos South Florida district swings back and forth with the political tides. Republicans did well here in 2010 and 2014 while Democrats took the seat in 2012. So far, unlike David Rivera and Joe Garcia, Curbelo has kept his nose clean, but he will draw a serious Democratic opponent in 2016. There are rumors Garcia could want a rematch, while Annette Taddeo has also thrown her name out there. One way or the other, Curbelo can expect a fight next year.
Jolly should also expect a close race, much like he did last year in the special election when he beat Alex Sink. Democrats bungled fielding a candidate against Jolly in November after a comedy of errors but the Republican congressman shouldnt expect his luck to hold again in 2016. This is a swing district and Democrats should field a major candidate against Jolly next year. There are rumors that Charlie Crist could resurface in his perpetual search for a new job but, even if he stays out, Jolly should expect a competitive race.
There arent many pickup opportunities for Republicans in Florida. Corrine Brown, Kathy Castor, Alcee Hastings, Ted Deutch, Lois Frankel and Frederica Wilson are pretty secure from Republicans. Conservatives can make a lot of noise and raise some cash in trying to take on Alan Grayson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz but those two Democrats are almost impossible to beat in their current districts.
That leaves Gwen Graham and Patrick Murphy. Already the NRCC is going after both of them -- especially Graham, who was one of only two Democrats to beat Republican incumbents last year.
Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in Grahams district but the GOP can win here even in a presidential year, as Steve Southerland showed. But Graham has done a solid job of keeping moderates and independents behind her so far and she has played to the middle, even voting against Nancy Pelosi to lead House Democrats. Shell be tough to beat in 2016. Most of the big-name Republicans in the district are more focused on Tallahassee, though someone could come out of nowhere the way Southerland did in 2010 when he beat Allen Boyd.
Murphy will also be tough to beat despite a slight Republican lean in his district. Besides beating Allen West, Murphy destroyed Carl Domino last year even though it was a great year for Republicans. Murphy has worked his district hard and has claimed the political center. Republicans will have a hard time taking him down in 2016.
The GOP does have one chance to expand its seats in 2016 and that involves the Senate contest. Both Murphy and Graham are prospects to run for the Senate. If Marco Rubio decides to run for president instead of the Senate, both Graham and Murphy will be looking at running to replace him. That gives the GOP two prime pickup opportunities. But if Graham and Murphy stay where they are, the Republican window closes dramatically.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
