The governors race and a few congressional battles will be the Florida elections that get the most attention next year, but keep an eye on the Florida House races. Unlike the Senate contests, where incumbents should easily keep their seats, the House offers some interesting races in 2014.
Democrats made great strides in the Florida House in 2012, moving up from 39 seats to 44. They could keep that momentum up in the days to come but, as of now, they will be hard pressed to do much more than defend their current incumbents in 2014.
It all starts later this month in the special election for Mike Fasanos old seat in Pasco County. Republican leaders, namely Richard Corcoran who is expected to be House speaker after the 2016 elections, have a lot riding on Bill Gunter. Democrats sense an opportunity to pick up a seat from the GOP and have a good candidate in Amanda Murphy. Gunters had some problems as his past run-ins with the law and with drugs have resurfaced. As a pastor, Gunters clearly turned his life around but his handling of his past, especially when he applied to work with law enforcement, could come back and haunt him. Fasano saying he voted for Murphy instead of his fellow Republican hasnt helped Gunter. This is a swing district where Fasano is wildly popular. The Democrats have a good chance of snagging a seat from Republicans and leaving some egg on Corcorans face.
But looking ahead to 2014, Democrats will be mostly be on the defense in the House. Republicans are starting to line up against House Democrat freshmen Karen Castor Dentel, Mike Clelland, Mark Danish, Jose Javier Rodriguez, Joe Saunders, Linda Stewart and Carl Zimmerman. Most of them should expect tough contests in 2014 and they wont have Barack Obamas and Bill Nelsons coattails to ride in on like they did last year. Not all these Democrats will lose and Saunders in particular starts off strong due to his district. But Republicans do have an outside chance of controlling more than 80 seats. That would give them enough votes to override a veto if Charlie Crist beats Rick Scott next year.
As of now, there arent many chances for Democrats to pick up seats in the House come 2014. Democrats are hoping a wave develops against Scott and some of their House candidates will ride it to victory. That would certainly help some of the vulnerable Democrat incumbents but it might not lead to many gains at Republican expense. On the Space Coast, Democrats could pick off John Tobia though hes shown a proven ability to fend off primary challenges and hold on in the general election. Democrats could also hope to defeat Republican freshman Ross Spano and win back Ray Pilons seat though the latters district does favor the GOP.
There are, of course, plenty of open seats in 2014 but all of them, so far, are in either solidly Republican districts or secure Democratic ones. Expect interesting primaries for seats where Republicans and Democrats should be secure for the next eight years.
Even if Murphy wins, Democrats will have more to lose than gain in 2014. Republicans have a chance, admittedly not a good one, of re-establishing a veto-proof majority. Democrats will have a hard time doing more than winning a handful more seats and even cutting the GOP majority to less than 20 seats is out of reach.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
