With all 25 congressional seats up for election this fall, Florida Democrats may be in an uphill fight to hold onto the 10 districts they have, a Sunshine State News Poll finds.
A survey of likely voters statewide shows that 47 percent would vote for the Republican in their congressional district. Just 39 percent said they would vote for the Democrat and 7 percent would opt for "another party."
The remaining 7 percent said they were undecided.
The results of the Voter Survey Service poll mirrors findings in other states. Nationally, a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Republicans holding a 49-40 edge on the "generic" congressional ballot.
The emerging preference for GOP congressional candidates, coupled with the expected low turnout among Democrats Nov. 2, could spell trouble for at least three Democratic incumbents in Florida.
Three Democratic districts represented by Allen Boyd, D-Tallahassee; Alan Grayson, D-Orlando; and Suzanne Kosmas, R-New Smyrna Beach, are rated as "tossups" by the Cook Political Report.
Rep. Ron Klein, D-Boca Raton, also is facing a tough Republican challenger in the 22nd Congressional District, which the GOP held from 1980-2006.
None of the state's 15 GOP-held districts are considered to be in danger.
The trend favoring Republican candidates is reflected in how respondents identified themselves in the VSS poll.
When asked their party affiliation, 45 percent answered "Republican" and 41 percent answered "Democrat." That's a reversal of party registration rolls, which break 44 percent Democratic and 43 percent Republican.
"Obviously, a lot more people are self-identifying as Republican this year," said Jim Lee, president of VSS.
Lee added, "We think the 4-point margin (45-41) is right. More people thinking of themselves as GOP voters."
Whether that translates into any Republican takeovers this fall remains to be seen. But the calculus is definitely working in the GOP's favor, since Republicans are typically more inclined than Democrats to turn out to vote.
That tendency appears to be even more pronounced this year.
The Voter Survey Service poll surveyed 1,016 voters Sept. 1-5 and Sept. 7, and had a margin of error of 3 percent.
--
Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
METHODOLOGY
This survey was commissioned by Sunshine State News and conducted Sept. 1-5 and Sept. 7 by Voter Survey Service, a division of Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg. Calls were automated, meaning that voters were contacted using a pre-recorded set of questions instructing voters to complete the survey by pressing their telephone key pads to score their answers; no live interviewers were used. The universe includes a random sample of likely voters from a statewide voter registration list of registered voters who have prior vote history in either the 2008 or 2006 general elections, with most interviews conducted among voters who voted in both elections. A vote-intensity screen was also applied to gauge interest in the upcoming general election, with interviews being exclusively conducted among those who indicated they have an excellent, good or fair chance of voting, while those who indicated their chances of voting were poor were disqualified. Interviews are also monitored to ensure a representative sample of the states voters are interviewed proportionally based on demographics like geographic region, age and gender consistent with what we believe will be the likely voter turnout model on Nov. 2. Results are sometimes statistically weighted to reflect under or over samples within various demographic groups. The margin of error for a sample size of 1,016 interviews is +/- 3.07 percent at the 95 percent confidence level, but higher for sub-groups of respondents.
