With the 2010 elections successfully in the rearview mirror, the Republican Party, like everyone else, is setting its sights on 2012. Experts say success in 2012 for any party will include a healthy harvesting of the Hispanic vote.
"I think any candidate wanting to run for president in 2012 had better start paying attention to how to improve the numbers for Hispanic people," said Ana Navarro, former co-chair for McCain's National Hispanic Advisory Council. "Because if not, we'll be permanently shut out of Pennsylvania Avenue and watching the White House form the exterior gate."
The day before polls closed in November, the American Action Network announced the GOP's latest major Hispanic outreach project. The Hispanic Leadership Network, co-chaired by former Gov. Jeb Bush and former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, will have its first official conference in January. Their stated mission on a simple website is to "engage center-right members of the Hispanic community and encourage active participation in our democracy."
It also states it is "critically important for center-right leaders to hear and understand their concerns."
But Latinos may be getting mixed messages from the GOP. Throughout much of the 2010 campaign season, some Latino voters expressed dissatisfaction with the tough-on-illegal-immigration rhetoric coming from the mouths of leading Republican candidates like Rick Scott and Bill McCollum. Some felt calls to support an Arizona-style immigration policy, or to reject the DREAM Act, were attacks on their communities.
Navarro, who currently serves as an adviser for the Hispanic Leadership Network, says what was emphasized by much of the media over the last few months gave an inaccurate picture of Hispanic concerns and Republican priorities.
"A very vocal minority of Republicans have said some hurtful things," said Navarro. "But they do not represent the entire party. That's why it's important to have strong voices like Jeb Bush or Norm Coleman [CEO of the American Action Network] to tell Hispanics that they are appreciated, they are welcome and they are part of the Republican family."
Despite his support for an Arizona-style immigration law, Gov.-elect Rick Scott was still able to gain favor among Hispanic voters. A Scott spokesman, Brian Burgess, cited exit polls that showed Scott breaking 50 percent among Latino voters.
"It doesn't matter what demographic you belong to," said Burgess, "Everybody wants jobs and that's where the rubber meets the road."
Navarroexpanded on that sentiment, saying Hispanics care about a plethora of issues.
"We're not a one-trick pony," she said. "There are [many] more issues that are of great interest to Hispanics, including national security, foreign policy, trade, educational and social values."
Alex Burgos, a spokesperson for Marco Rubio, said the outreach to the Hispanic community is "essential for the party, but it's also very natural given the GOP's support of policies that benefit the Hispanic community.
"It's also very natural, with the emergence of more Hispanic entrepreneurs, to see them more concerned with fiscal opportunities and joining the ranks of Republicans.
"From job creation to education reform, protecting and preserving the free-enterprise system allows people from all backgrounds to advance in this country," said Burgos.
Sen.-elect Marco Rubio, who campaigned on his parents' immigration story and his opportunity to live the American Dream, has been a firm opponent of the DREAM Act. While he argues it provides broad-based amnesty, Navarro, a strong Latino voice within the same party, contends that the children who would benefit from the bill are not responsible for the acts of their parents.
Navarro's experience is an example of the conflict of ideas, not only inside the Republican Party, but among Latinos within the party. And it's something the Hispanic Leadership Network will have to address.
Susan MacManus, a political analyst from the University of South Florida, says building a network could have a powerful effect for the GOP. She says most politicians ignore the fact that there isn't just one 'Hispanic population,' but rather several populations made up of immigrants who trace their heritage back to Columbia, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and other nations to the south.
"It is really important that the differences among Hispanics on key issues should be dealt with on a group-by-group level," MacManus said, "not classified all together."
She believes networks like the one being led by Bush and Gutierrez will play a vital role in linking Hispanic voters.
MacManus says reaching out to Latinos is a bigger challenge in Florida because of the multiple groups involved. But it's not just the diversity in nationality, there are also stratifications in political views.
Academics are now starting to pay attention to the generational and educational differences that make policy views among Hispanics quite diverse. For example, third-generation Hispanics often have different views on immigration than their first- or second-generation counterparts. And older or more educated Hispanics typically have tougher views on immigration and more support for requiring legal measures, says MacManus.
But as one of the fastest growing voting demographics, Hispanics are of great importance to both parties.
In 2004, George W. Bush won about 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, due in part to his brother Jeb. In 2008, John McCain captured about 33 percent of the vote and Republicans began to worry that the decline could continue.
"The takeaway in 2008 was that we lost the elections because we lost the Hispanic vote," said Navarro. "Two years have gone by and really nothing has been done."
Until now.
Navarro says Bush, Gutierrez and others heading up the Hispanic Leadership Network add credibility to the effort, especially among Hispanics.
In a written response to Sunshine State News, Jeb Bush described the conference as providing a "forum leaders to speak with and listen to members of the Hispanic community on the issues that are important to them, including free trade, immigration, faith and family, jobs and the economy, education, and health care."
If the GOP's outreach isn't countered by a Democratic effort, Republicans could see an advantage in 2012. MacManus says Hispanics, typically more independent, are not as wed to one party as another. And they're very approachable by people who can speak Spanish (which is why Jeb was so helpful to his brother).
Though Barack Obama was able to capture a significant portion of the Latino vote in 2008 and beat McCain, many feel the president has let them down.
"Hispanics are extremely disillusioned with Obama's broken promises," said Navarro. "And it would be very smart of Republicans to take Obama's lemons and turn them into lemonade."
The Hispanic Leadership Network will hold its inaugural conference in Coral Gables Jan. 13-14. Presidential hopefuls for 2012 are expected to address those in attendance.
Lane Wright can be reached at lane@sunshinestatenews.com or at (561) 247-1063.
