Florida may have to find $65.8 million more for Medicaid costs this year than initially forecast, yet that may be good news for a state working to rein in its ever-expanding health care expenses.
Amy Baker, Floridas chief economist, said the revised projection, while up $11.4 million from July, is better than the $300 million shortfall mentioned earlier this month by Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, who has led the state's effort to reform Medicaid.
We had to add a little bit, but thats good news for the Legislature, Baker said Monday.
Negron agreed the numbers sound better than the range of estimates that were recently shown to him. However, he noted the Legislature will still have $1 billion to carve from other parts of the overall budget for 2012.
I think the big picture is still very concerning, Negron said. There shouldnt be a deficit in Medicaid.
One reason the numbers are lower than first projected is that enrollment has been slower than anticipated, while hospital reimbursement is also down.
Negron said that could be a sign that the economy has gotten a little better.
The revised Medicaid costs are part of a three-year fiscal outlook Baker is scheduled to present to state senators on Thursday.
Next year, without federal stimulus money coming in, the Medicaid programs cost to the state could jump $940 million above the current year's projection, according to state economists attending the Social Services Estimating Conference on Monday.
This time, the forecast number is down from July, when Medicaid was predicted to grow $977 million above the $21.3 billion budgeted this year.
The biggest chunk, nearly two-thirds, of the 2012-13 number comes from the need to make up $600 million in federal stimulus funding that went into Floridas share of Medicaid this year.
Republican lawmakers last spring voted to overhaul Floridas entire Medicaid system, moving beneficiaries into HMOs and other managed-care plans, arguing the shift would improve patient care and save tax dollars.
Florida continues to work with the federal government on acquiring a waiver to support Floridas plan to expand Medicaid privatization from a current five-county pilot program into the statewide plan legislators approved in the spring.
The plan would shift those needing long-term care to a managed-care plan by October 2013, with most other Medicaid enrollees in a managed-care program by October 2014.
Medicaid beneficiaries with developmental disabilities are exempt.
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859 or (772) 215-9889.
