George W. Bush might have been noticeably absent from the GOP convention in Tampa back in 2012 but hes starting to resurface again -- and that could complicate things for brother Jeb as he considers running for president in 2016.
The second President Bush has been front and center on the national stage in recent weeks, promoting his new book about his father George H.W. Bush. Invariably, the topic keeps coming back to 2016 and whether his brother will try to follow in the family tradition.
Case in point: Candy Crowleys interview with George W. Bush on State of the Union on CNN on Sunday. The former president said he hoped his brother would run and had no doubt the former Florida governor would wipe the floor with Hillary Clinton.
The former president offers Jeb Bush some problems as he looks ahead to 2016. To be sure, George W. Bush is in far better shape with voters now than he was when he left office. Barack Obama has proven no better than his predecessor when it has come to a number of key areas like the economy and the Middle East. But few would rank George W. Bush alongside Ronald Reagan or even Bill Clinton. Hes no candidate to be put up on Mt. Rushmore if they ever expand it.
Conservatism has taken a very different path since George W. Bushs big government conservatism, thanks in part to the rise of the tea party movement. Theres a reason that theres another heir to a political dynasty jockeying for 2016: Rand Paul, the son of a fierce critic of the 43rd presidents policies at home and abroad.
Jeb Bush isnt exactly a favorite of the tea party crowd. He breaks with them on several issues, most notably immigration and Common Core. The tea party is usually pretty set against the Republican establishment and theres nobody who personifies it more than the Bush clan.
But Jeb Bush does have one big thing going for him and his brother serves as something of a reminder of it. No Republican presidential ticket without a Bush on it has won a presidential election since 1972. The Bushes are not like most political dynasties that limit themselves to just one state.
From their New England roots, the Bushes have claimed the two big electoral prizes in the Sun Belt: Texas and the ultimate swing state of Florida. As Jeb Bushs two sons start their own political careers, they are following in their elders footsteps with George P. Bush already winning office in Texas while Jeb Bush Jr. is set on becoming a power in Florida.
The Bush family will be a double-edged sword if Jeb seeks the presidency in 2016. But one thing's clear. Just like Hillary Clinton will never be able to shake her husband off if she lands in the White House, Jeb Bush will never be clear of his brother or his father.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
