Former President George W. Bush poses a problem but also an advantage for Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., as the former Florida governor ponders running for the Republican presidential nomination.
There are signs that Jeb Bush has looked at how his brother won the White House. The former Florida governor is planning to bring in $100 million -- including $25 million from the Sunshine State -- in the first quarter of 2015, according to a new article from Bloomberg. Bushs camp is denying those figures are what they are targeting for the start of the new year. If the former Florida governor brings in $100 million right off the bat, other Republicans would surely be taking note.
If this sounds familiar, it is. George W. Bush outraised his competition back in the early stages of the 2000 presidential nomination. By bringing in $37 million early, the then-Texas governor drove out many of his top opponents. Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole rocketed to the top of the polls when she announced she was running but was out before Iowa. So was former Vice President Dan Quayle, who served under President George H.W. Bush. Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, who had done well in the 1996 primaries, was done in by the Iowa straw poll. Two conservative threats -- Pat Buchanan, who had stunned the first President Bush in the 1992 primaries, and U.S. Sen. Bob Smith, R-N.H. -- left the GOP to continue their bids on minor party lines. U.S. Rep. John Kasich, R-Ohio, now the governor of the Buckeye State but in 1999 a rising conservative congressman, pulled out early and threw his support behind George W. Bush.
By the time Iowa held its caucus, Bush was facing a far less crowded field with a lot of candidates who simply werent electable. While he won the New Hampshire primary, U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., didnt fare well in other crucial contests. Steve Forbes spent heavily but did even worse than he had back in 1996. U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, was embarrassed by taking 1 percent in Iowa and that was the end of his bid. Conservative activists Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes made a lot of noise but simply never came close to winning a primary. George W. Bushs big haul made his road to the White House a lot easier, chasing away other possible nominees and allowing him to weather the McCain storm and go toe to toe with the Forbes fortune.
Jeb Bush is clearly taking notes from his brothers 2000 bid. If the former Florida governor raises $100 million in the first quarter of 2015, several other possible Republican candidates fighting for the same position -- former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis, Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J. -- could opt out of presidential bids, scared out of the race by the massive Bush war chest.
Certainly the former Florida governor has his brothers support. George W. Bush took to Facebook on Tuesday to express support for his brother.
"Today, Jeb Bush launched the Right to Rise, a leadership PAC dedicated to making America a place of unlimited opportunity, the former president posted. Laura and I are proud to support my brother and contribute."
But Jeb Bush inherits a far different take on the family legacy than his brother did back in 1999. While he might have been a one-term president, Americans generally thought highly of George H.W. Bushs presidency and its successes in foreign policy: chasing Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, the end of the Cold War and the unification of Germany. Some conservatives never forgave the first President Bush for breaking his read my lips, no new taxes pledge but, with the 1990s ranking as the best of times for the American economy, the minor recession that sunk his chances for a second term were quickly forgotten.
George W. Bush didnt hand down the same legacy to his brother. Conservatives were unhappy with his expansion of the federal government and No Child Left Behind. Military forces were engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan far longer than the Bush administration assured Americans they would be. The economy never returned to the heights it had reached under Bill Clinton.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) looked to tie his brother around Jeb Bushs neck this weeks in a series of emails. Pointing toward comments the former Florida governor made about former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the DNC quickly pounced.
On Wednesday evening, Jeb Bush reportedly told major donors, If someone wants to run a campaign about '90s nostalgia, its not going to be very successful. Meanwhile, Bush right on cue is building his team and, according to the Washington Examiner, its a government in waiting of staffers, aides and allies from George W. and George H.W. Bushs administrations the same people who not once but twice were at the helm as our nation headed into recessions, one of which was our worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, the DNC emailed the media on Friday. So I guess in Jebs world, nostalgia for the '90s (when the economy came roaring back) = bad, and nostalgia for the Bush years (when the economy tanked, especially for the middle class) = good.
But, even if their candidate will be hurt by Bush fatigue, the former Florida governors supporters can offer their Republican colleagues a simple reminder. The last time the Republicans won a presidential election without a Bush on the ticket was 1972. Since then, Republicans have won five presidential contests and lost one with a Bush on the ticket. Without the Bush name, Republicans have lost four presidential elections.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
