Florida might try to cast itself in orange to reflect the sun and citrus, but politically, the state is as purple as it comes in the big elections. Sure, the congressional delegation, Cabinet and legislative races go Republican. But the main events remain close contests, most definitely including the gubernatorial race.
Take Fangate. Even if he wasnt supposed to have the fan on the stage with him during the debate, Charlie Crist scored a win and Rick Scott came off poorly. This became the story of the night and fodder for late-night comedians, but the needle didnt move a tick in the race. Polls released after the debate generally found Scott and Crist locked in a tie, just as they were before the memorable event. Why? Because the same people who were for Scott before the debate were still with him. Floridians who didnt like Scott before the debate still didnt like him.
There simply arent that many undecided voters in this race. Florida voters are familiar -- more than familiar -- with both Scott and Crist and they aren't crazy about either of them. Based on last Tuesdays debate, both candidates realize this, because they spent more time going after each other, clawing for an edge, than talking about what they intend to do if elected.
Adrian Wyllie has been one of the chief beneficiaries as Scott and Crist continue to wrestle in the mud. Wyllie is polling far above the numbers any Libertarian candidate has pulled in a statewide election in Florida. This is more of a reflection of how voters are disgusted by Scott and Crist than by any actual support for Wyllie, who has been hindered by a shoestring budget and his inability to be included in even one of the three debates.
The question is, what happens to Wyllies support in the final days of the campaign? Third-party candidates often fade in the last stages of a campaign -- just ask John Anderson and Ross Perot. Closer to home, look at the two Libertarians running in special congressional elections earlier this year. Lucas Overby and Rey Netherwood were both polling in double digits but ended up pulling far below that when the votes were actually counted. The same thing will happen to Wyllie. Look for Crist and the Democrats to bring up Ralph Naders impact on Al Gore back in 2000 as they look to bring in social Libertarians inclined to vote for Wyllie. Scotts team will do the same thing to shore up fiscal Libertarian support.
That being said, Wyllie will do far better than other Libertarians like Gary Johnson and Alex Snitcker have in Florida. It will be interesting to see if the Libertarians can build on Wyllies campaign for the future, even if some of his success is the result of voter apathy toward Scott and Crist.
With plenty of voters planning to go fishing on Election Day, Scott and Crist will be counting all their eggs in the coming days, beating the drums to get their bases out to the polls. The campaigns will also be continuing to run the attack ads, trying to make their candidate out as the lesser of two evils. Its not going to be a pretty or uplifting final week of the campaign.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
