Floridas slow recovery, tied with global economic uncertainty, has smacked the state in its bank account.
State economists remain cautiously hopeful the United States, and with it Florida, will avoid a second recession as they look at a $1.3 billion revenue shortfall for next year.
The drop is expected to go deeper Monday when the revenue estimating conference reviews revised Medicaid cost numbers.
The revision was needed because revenues declined sharply in August and September.
For the current year, the states projected end-of-the-current-budget-year surplus was shifted from $1.5 billion to $900 million.
The adjustments to the forecast indicate an economy that is still in the throes of an abnormally slow recovery, said Amy Baker, the states chief economist.
Baker said the states current economic situation is tied to the summers federal disagreement over the nation's debt ceiling and the debt crisis throughout the Euro-zone.
All of that together led to a lot of uncertainly," Baker said."Consumer confidence plunged in August. People that might have been in a position to spend money, just chose not to.
Gov. Rick Scott said that even with the projected deficit, his goal is to continue to prioritize money toward job creation.
I walked in with a projected $3.4-to-$3.7 billion deficit now were projecting a $1-to-$2 billion deficit, Scott said. Were going to have to go through the same thing. How do you prioritize those dollars when theyre not growing dollars?
State Rep. Denise Grimsley, R-Sebring, chairwoman of the House Appropriations Committee, expressed confidence that legislators will be able to hold the line on taxes without hindering efforts to allow businesses to create jobs.
Todays projections from the general revenue estimating conference confirm that Florida faces yet another challenging budget year, Grimsley stated in a release. As lawmakers, it is our constitutional duty to hold the line on spending as we work toward achieving a balanced budget with limited resources. Despite these challenges, I remain confident we can reach our goal without raising taxes on Floridians while also incentivizing the creation of more jobs.
The shortfall means when legislators meet in January for the start of the regular session, they will have that much less money to play with as they craft the 2012-13 budget than they did when putting together the current years $69 billion budget.
A big chunk of the revised projections is in sales and documentary taxes, often associated with the real estate market.
Sales taxes are projected to be down $267.1 million in the current year that ends June 30, 2012, in most areas except food and clothing, and tourism and recreation. For the following year, the revenue forecast was cut $742.8 million.
Meanwhile, taxes generated through intangibles taxes, taxes on deeds and other documents, and documentary stamp taxes are forecast down $79.8 million this year, with revenue projection down $150.3 million the following year.
The state forecast assumes that a recovery has been underway since 2010.
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859 or (772) 215-9889.
