Tampa is hosting the Republican National Convention 13 months from now, but the home state could seat only half of its total delegates if Florida refuses to move its current primary date.
Florida's presidential preference primary is currently scheduled for Jan. 31, 2012. Legislative leaders will likely move the date, but RNC rules prohibit most states from holding primaries ahead of March 1.
"There's a punishment in place (for moving the primary ahead) and it's half the delegates. That's firm and it will be in place," RNC spokesperson Ryan Tronovitch said.
Traditional early primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina moved their primary dates up in 2008, in order to prevent being upstaged by other states that wanted to move ahead in line. Iowa held its presidential preference election on Jan. 3 that year, and is threatening to do so again this year if Florida and other states trigger a push up the calendar.
Republican party chairs in early primary states circulated a letter in March trying to get support for moving the party's convention site away from Tampa as a way of punishing Florida, but that notion is largely off the table. Still, Florida's delegate count could take a hit.
Florida's legislative leaders say they simply want the state's importance in the general election to be reflected in the primary election. As the largest swing state, Florida has become a hard-fought battleground for presidential elections. Its primacy will only increase next year, when it adds two new congressional districts and two new votes in the Electoral College.
But primary schedules are determined more by history and tradition than electoral votes. Iowa, whose caucuses are perennially the first presidential preference primary, has only six electoral votes. Next year, Florida will have 29.
However, the push to have a primary that helps weed out the crowded field of presidential candidates is not going away. State House Speaker Dean Cannon and Senate President Mike Haridopolos set up a committee to determine when the date should be. The leaders are intent on securing Florida's importance in the primary process through an early date.
"Ultimately, Speaker Cannon supports choosing a date that will allow Florida to remain a relevant player in the process. For him, that requires selecting a date that is both early and unique to Florida. We will have a better picture of what that date might be as other states begin to make their decision," said Cannon spokesperson Katie Betta.
Haridopolos has consistently stated his desire to be fifth -- behind Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
But members of the Presidential Preference Primary Committee, which must choose a date by Oct. 1, have not yet been named, and meetings have not been announced.
Many legislators are busy conducting redistricting hearings around the state, the last of which takes place Sept. 1. Unlike the redistricting hearings, which were designed for the sole purpose of getting input from the public, the Presidential Preference Primary Committee, and its Oct. 1 deadline, were set up to let Florida assess when other states might hold their primaries.
"There is no deadline for the appointment of a committee and in the speaker's opinion no reason for a committee to meet until we have a better understanding of the landscape as a whole. That is the nature of his reasoning behind supporting the creation of a committee -- it provides Florida the flexibility to react to changes made in other states," Betta said.
When it meets, the committee will choose a date between Jan. 31 and March 31 for the primary.
For his part, Gov. Rick Scott wants an early primary date for Florida, but isn't willing to give up delegates to get it.
"He wants the earliest date possible that doesn't cost us delegates," Scott spokesperson Lane Wright said.
According to the RNC's rules, that date would be March 1.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
