There must be something about election years ending in 12.
As the nation entered a war with England in 1812, DeWitt Clinton offered a strong but ultimately unsuccessfulchallenge to incumbent James Madison in the presidential election. The 1912 presidential election ranks as one of the most important and colorful in American history as Democrat Woodrow Wilson beat out Bull Moose Progressive Theodore Roosevelt, while incumbent Republican William Howard Taft placed third.
All signs point to the 2012 election cycle being an important one at both the national and state levels. President Barack Obama remains down in the polls and, while the Republican primary contest remains fluid, is potentially very vulnerable in the general election. Just as it has in recent presidential elections, Florida ranks as the largest swing state on the electoral map -- meaning the Sunshine State will be seeing more than its share of the incumbent Democrat and whoever the Republicans nominate.
Obama is not the only Democrat incumbent facing a tough fight in Florida come 2012. Despite four decades on Floridas political stage, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has problems breaking the 50 percent mark in approval polls and in surveys matching him up against any of the leading Republican candidates in the crowded field of challengers. With Democrats fighting to keep control of the U.S. Senate -- their challenge grew larger at the end of December when U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska announced he was not running for another term -- this race will have national implications.
CONGRESSIONAL RACES
A crowded field of Republicans has lined up to take on Florida's Nelson and they have already started to throw elbows at each other:
- After first passing on entering the race, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack starts the year as the front-runner in the polls and is already drawing fire from his opponents for vocally opposing the Arizona immigration law.
- Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux is looking to return to Washington and highlighting his plans to reduce federal spending and the deficit while his rivals hammer him for his ties to former Gov. Charlie Crist, his old boss who remains a persona non grata with Republicans for ditching the GOP during the 2010 Senate race.
- Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is trying to stress his conservative credentials while building up his name recognition.
- Retired Army colonel and businessman Mike McCalister, who ran for governor in 2010, is looking to build tea party support.
- Restaurant executive Craig Miller is stressing his private-sector credentials.
Floridas congressional races remain uncertain until the Legislature finishes redistricting, but there are a number of strong challengers already lining up against incumbents. Democrats would love to oust Steve Southerland, Dan Webster, Vern Buchanan, Allen West and David Rivera, while the GOP is looking to knock off the likes of Kathy Castor and Debbie Wasserman Schultz. With two new seats and Mack running for Senate, there are also three open races that could hold interesting primaries.
GOVERNOR'S PROSPECTS
Gov. Rick Scott remains down in the polls, but there are signs that this could change in 2012. Scott ran in 2010 promising to combat unemployment and bring new jobs to Florida. Hes had some success as the state unemployment dipped in 2011 and, if this trend continues, he could be better off in the polls at the end of the year. Having waged a bitter primary against then-Attorney General Bill McCollum in 2010, Scotts polls numbers could also inch up as Republicans who backed his primary rival drift over to back the governor.
Democrats are counting on giving Scott a fight in 2014 and some of the potential candidates -- Alex Sink whom Scott beat out in 2010, Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Pam Iorio, Jeremy Ring, Jack Seiler, Rod Smith -- will start to make their moves in 2012. All eyes will be on Charlie Crist as buzz continues that he could run for his old job as a Democrat or, like his failed Senate bid in 2010, with no party affiliation.
REDISTRICTING, GAMBLING
The Legislature will have its hands full with redistricting as the congressional and state legislative lines will be redrawn. While Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature, they will be challenged to keep them intact as they are forced to comply with constitutional amendments passed by the voters in 2010 on how they can draw up the maps. No matter how the maps are drawn, redistricting appears likely to be headed to the courts. While few observers expect the Democrats to pick up either the House or the Senate, they have a chance to chip into GOP strength in Tallahassee.
Other matters will also occupy the Legislatures attention in 2012. All eyes will be on the fight over a bill that would pave the way for increased destination gaming and casinos in the Sunshine State. Republicans are divided on this one -- with some backing the measure while some of the leading social conservatives in the state are against it.
Scott has proposed another lean budget which will draw some fire from the Democrats -- and perhaps some Republicans. The current leaders of the Legislature -- Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, and House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park, are enjoying their last session in charge. By the middle of the session, more attention will be focused on the leaders waiting in the wings -- incoming Senate President Don Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach, and incoming House Speaker Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel.
While Republicans and Democrats duel for control in Washington and Tallahassee, 2012 will also see the 450th anniversary of French explorers led by Jean Ribault discovering the St. Johns River on Floridas First Coast. The French would attempt to settle Florida two years later, only to be pushed out and slaughtered by the Spanish. Without the failed French effort, the Spanish would not have founded St. Augustine, the nations oldest city, in 1565. The Sunshine State will also ready in 2012 for the quincentenary of Ponce de Leon discovering Florida in 1513.
Florida was in the front lines when European nations dueled to shape the New World in the 16th century -- and is front and center again for the political contests of 2012.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
