The Florida Senate saw almost no changes in 2014 but 2016 will be a far different story as recent events show.
Not a single member of the Senate faced term limits last year and all senators kept their seats in November. The only change came after the elections when John Thrasher resigned his seat to take over as president of Florida State University.
While its still very early in the next election cycle, its becoming clear the Senate will look far different after the November 2016 elections.
With Thrasher gone, Travis Hutson is near certain to take his seat in the Senate. Hutson ran over Doc Renuart, a colleague in the Florida House, in last months special Republican primary. Democrat David Cox will be a minor obstacle at best to Hutson in this very Republican district.
Hutson replacing Thrasher is something of a torch passing to a far younger Republican. The same holds true in the Panhandle where Matt Gaetz looks unstoppable in his efforts to replace his father Don in the Senate. So far, the younger Gaetz has driven off Jimmy Patronis, no easy out to be sure, and is the only candidate in the race. The Democrats should not be much of a factor here.
But not every path to the Senate will be as easy as Matt Gaetzs. With Charlie Dean facing term limits in 2016, two conservative Republicans in the Florida House -- Dennis Baxley and Jimmie Smith -- have already started running to replace him. That could make for an interesting primary and there are other Republicans eyeing the seat. Once again, the Democrats wont really come into play here.
Over in Central Florida, Realtor Dean Asher is running strong for the Republicans while Democrats have a solid candidate of their own in Rick Roach, a longtime member of the Orange County School Board. They are both gunning for the seat currently held by Andy Gardiner. This should be a competitive race but the GOP does have the edge in the district.
Over in Tampa Bay, two Democrats have launched bids in recent days as they look to move up the ranks as Arthenia Joyner bows out. Darryl Rouson is trying to move over from the House to the Senate but hell face old colleague Betty Reed in the primary. Rouson is still a persona non grata with many Democrats for his battle against Allison Tant but he is popular back home. This will be a competitive primary with various interests entering the fray. The GOP will not bother to offer major competition in this Democratic district.
Down in Southwest Florida, with Garrett Richter facing term limits, two House colleagues are already battling it out in the Republican primary. Both Matt Hudson and Kathleen Passidomo are running hard for this seat and there could be fireworks in the primary. Democrats generally perform poorly in this area and should offer little opposition to whoever wins the Republican primary.
Two Democrats who used to sit in the Florida House are running for the Senate in South Florida districts where the GOP has no chance. Jim Waldman has been running since 2012 for the seat Jeremy Ring will have to give up in 2016 due to term limits. Waldman has already raised more than $109,000 but there are rumors he could have Democratic primary rivals, including Jared Moskowitz who is now in his third term in the House.
With Chris Smith facing term limits, Perry Thurston is running to replace him. But Thurston has ignored his Senate campaign in recent months, focusing on running for attorney general. Thurston lost to George Sheldon in the primary and has not been raising money for his Senate bid, allowing some room for a Democratic primary opponent to challenge him. So far, there are no other candidates besides Thurston in the mix.
There is one senator facing a serious primary challenge. Now 80, Gwen Margolis will have to work if she wants to continue her service in the Senate. First elected to the House in 1974 and the Senate in 1980, Margolis served as Senate president in the early 1990s before losing a congressional bid. After a decade on the Miami-Dade County Commission, Margolis returned to the Senate in the 2002 elections only to leave in 2008 during a failed effort to become Miami-Dade property appraiser. Only two year later, Margolis returned to the Senate yet again since Dan Gelber gave up the seat to run for attorney general. But Margolis now faces a major rival in David Richardson who has filed for the Senate seat. Richardson had indicated he would be open to primarying Margolis if she runs again.
Of course, there are plenty of senators who are in the clear for now. Republicans Rob Bradley, Anitere Flores, Denise Grimsley, Alan Hays, John Legg and Kelli Stargel, and Democrats Joe Abruzzo, Dwight Bullard, Jeff Clemens, Audrey Gibson and Bill Montford arent facing any opponents so far. But some of them could move up the political ladder. Abruzzo, for example, is considered a likely candidate to run for Congress if Ted Deutch aims for the U.S. Senate in 2016.
Regardless of who wins the Senate seats, as of now there will be at least eight new senators after the 2016 elections and that could be higher if Richardson wins the seat or other members step down. One thing is clear, though: Unlike after the last election, the Florida Senate will be a far different place after the 2016 elections.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
