A new poll shows U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., starts off as the favorite if he decides to run for a second term in the U.S. Senate in 2016, but if he opts to run for president the contest is wide open.
Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to prominent Democrats, released a poll on Wednesday showing Rubio in solid shape, with 45 percent of voters approving of him and 40 percent disapproving.
It looks like the Florida Senate race will be a tossup if Marco Rubio runs for president,said Dean Debnam, the president of PPP. Rubio would be favored if he runs again but if its an open seat both sides have about an equal chance at it.
Matched up against some of the leading Democratic candidates, Rubio is out front. Rubio beats U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., who announced his bid on Monday, 48 percent to 41 percent. Rubio does even better against U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Fla., 49 percent to 40 percent. Grayson has left the door open to running for the Senate in 2016.
When Rubio is taken out of the equation, the race is a tossup. Florida CFO Jeff Atwater edges Grayson 41 percent to 40 percent and leads Murphy 41 percent to 39 percent. Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi has a slightly larger lead over the Democrats, beating Grayson 45 percent to 42 percent and leading Murphy 45 percent to 41 percent.
The Democrats do better against two other potential Republican candidates. Grayson beats Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, 40 percent to 36 percent. Murphy takes 41 percent when matched up with Lopez-Cantera who pulls 34 percent.
Matched up against former U.S. Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., the congressman he beat in 2012, Murphy leads 41 percent to 39 percent. Grayson beats West 42 percent to 39 percent. West left Florida in recent months to take over the National Center for Policy Analysis in Texas.
Besides Rubio, the other potential Senate candidates are far lesser known. Bondi is seen as favorable by 38 percent, unfavorable by 32 percent and 30 percent are not sure of her. West is also above water, with 33 percent viewing him in a favorable light and 23 percent seeing him as unfavorable, while 44 percent are not sure.
But the other candidates are far lesser known. Despite winning statewide office twice, 59 percent are not sure what they think of Atwater while 20 percent see him as favorable and 21 percent as unfavorable. A majority -- 53 percent -- are not sure about Grayson while 20 percent see him as favorable and 26 percent see him as unfavorable.
Murphy is also largely unknown with almost two-thirds of those surveyed -- 65 percent -- who are not sure what they think of him, while 21 percent see him as favorable and 13 percent view him as unfavorable. Lopez-Cantera, who has been at his post for little over a year, is the least known candidate, with 72 percent of those surveyed not sure about him while 11 percent see him as favorable and 17 percent as unfavorable.
The poll of 923 registered Florida voters was taken March 19-23 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
