Floridas unemployment rate is hovering at around 12 percent, but a group of retailers predicts that holiday shoppers will bring peace on the economy and good will toward sales.
The Florida Retail Federation announced Monday that holiday sales will increase by 3 to 4 percent in the state over last year, beating the national forecast of a 2.3 percent increase.
Our members are experiencing some really great trends and we think our number is going to be about 4 percent, said Rick McAllister, CEO of the Florida Retail Federation.
McAllister gathered with store managers at Governors Square Mall in Tallahassee to announce the FRFs outlook ahead of the holiday shopping season, but the statement may be a little tardy. McAllister said that 40 percent of Floridians begin their holiday shopping before Halloween. Other retailers said they have seen positive starts to the holiday season.
We think its going to be a strong year for us and strong for our partners in the retail world, said Ken DeHart, JCPenney store manager.
Though McAllister pointed to increased consumer confidence over the past six months and a sense of frugality fatigue among shoppers, he admits that Floridas high unemployment rate threatens to put a dent in retailers holiday mood.
Seasonal hiring typically alleviates unemployment figures for a time, but McAllister said this years seasonal hires will outpace the 30,000 to 40,000 jobs added during the recession years of 2008 and 2009.
The only real drag on Florida continues to be unemployment and I think well see that start to turn around soon, McAllister said.
If Florida does produce increased sales this holiday season, they may come from newer stores, as shoppers eschew older malls in favor of lifestyle malls and shopping centers.
Weve been going through this evolution. The consumers are going to go where the stores are. My guess is that those stores that have been struggling are going to do better during the holiday season, but not as good as some of the others with more options, McAllister said.
Shoppers are also encouraged to buy early and snatch up any good deal instead of waiting or hoping for a better price later. Retailers, he said, are likely to stock less inventory in the down economy and aim to push prices higher.
Customers are definitely more savvy than ever ... but the price points dont need to be as sharp as they have been, DeHart said.
Of course, in a harsh economic climate, retailers are pulling out all the stops to increase sales during the holidays, but some are also getting back to basics.
What well be concentrating on is getting customers in the building. Its never too early to start shopping for the holiday season, said Best Buy store manager Ellis Hanks.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunsinestatenews.com or at (85) 727-0859.
