Jeb Bush might be getting the national headlines but Marco Rubio is holding the cards when it comes to Florida politics. Right now, quite a few Florida politicians are waiting on Rubios decision for 2016 as they chart out their own political courses.
Bush looks near certain to run for president in 2016 and Rubio is increasingly looking like a presidential candidate himself. Rubios been pretty clear that if he runs for president, he wont seek a second term in the Senate. The closer Rubio gets to running for president, the closer Florida gets to seeing a scramble of candidates preparing to run for his seat, which will in turn set off a stampede for politicians for the offices the new batch of Senate hopefuls will leave behind.
On the Republican side, Jeff Atwater is getting a lot of attention as a Senate candidate if Rubio runs for president. Atwater tested the Senate waters against Bill Nelson back in 2012 and is a proven winner at the state level. While hes not the most dynamic candidate, Atwater makes sense for Republicans as a good bet to hold on to the seat.
But Atwater isnt the only prospective Republican candidate. Adam Putnam is also in the mix though hes generally considered more likely to aim for governor in 2018. If Republicans think they need a woman on the ticket in Florida to counter Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side in 2016, Pam Bondi and Anitere Flores could also end up in the Senate race. While he's on the young side, Will Weatherford would also have to look at the Senate race.
Of course, there are plenty of Republican congressmen in Florida who would like to move up to the Senate. Vern Buchanans gotten most of the attention but he is not well-known outside his district and would have to give up his seat on the Ways and Means Committee. Dan Webster might have burned his bridges in the House when he challenged John Boehner and his seat isnt exactly safe. It wouldnt be the first time hes sought statewide office, though Webster never really impressed in any of his previous efforts. Tom Rooney has some potential as a statewide candidate and so does Ron DeSantis, while Curt Clawson and Ted Yoho have never been afraid to make a few waves.
Some of the 2012 candidates could resurface. Connie Mack didnt impress against Nelson but hes remained active. So has George LeMieux who certainly enjoyed his brief time in the Senate. Mike Haridopolos is still sitting on plenty of campaign cash he can use if he decides to make another try at the Senate.
There could also be a Senate candidate on the Republican side who has never held elected office before. In recent years, Rick Scott, Pam Bondi, Yoho, DeSantis, Clawson and Trey Radel won major office in their first tries at elected office, beating major primary opponents. Republican voters could do the same thing in a Senate primary in 2016.
The Democrats dont exactly have the most impressive bench in Florida but they do have plenty of options to run for the Senate in 2016. Charlie Crist can shrug off his loss to Scott last year by saying he did well in a Republican year. Certainly Crist has always been interested in the Senate, running for it in 1998 and 2010.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz has been floating her name and she would certainly be able to bring in big bucks as the chair of the DNC. If Clinton will mobilize women to vote in droves in 2016, Wasserman Schultz could face her best shot at moving to the Senate. Even with last weeks food fight with John Morgan, Wasserman Schultz should be able to turn out the Democratic base.
Alan Grayson might drive Republicans nuts but he is a favorite of grassroots liberals and should be able to raise the money he needs to run. Grayson has shown some interest but he also expressed some reservations about taking on Wasserman Schultz.
Ted Deutch isnt as well-known as Wasserman Schultz or Grayson but he has been impressively stringing together wins in recent years. Deutch is liberal enough on social and some fiscal issues to keep Democrats behind him while coming off as a hawk on foreign policy, especially with Middle Eastern issues and support of Israel.
Patrick Murphy has also impressed in his young political career. Hes a good campaigner who outworked Allen West to win a congressional seat in 2012 and kept it by destroying Carl Domino in 2014 despite it being a great year for Republicans. Murphy has expressed some interest in running for Senate and shows a lot of potential for Democrats.
Gwen Graham has also been able to claim the political center. Shes only in her first weeks in Congress but shes been able to carve out a niche for herself. Florida voters also have very fond memories of her father, something she banked on last year against Steve Southerland.
Not all these candidates will run in 2016 and some will wait until 2018 when Nelson will be 76 and up for a fourth term. Whatever Rubio does, there are plenty of politicians making their calculations. If Rubio decides to run for president, expect a major dash on both sides for the open Senate seat.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
