A new poll shows Florida retains its position as the ultimate swing state in presidential politics even as the favorites in the polls -- former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and businessman Donald Trump for the Republicans -- are not the strongest general election candidates.
Quinnipiac University released a poll on Wednesday matching up some of the top candidates against each other in Florida.
Clinton does better against Republicans who have never held office, leading Trump 46 percent to 41 percent, Dr. Ben Carson 45 percent to 43 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina 44 percent to 42 percent. But two Republicans who won office in Florida fare better against Clinton. Former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., edges Clinton 44 percent to 43 percent while U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., leads her 46 percent to 44 percent.
Vice President Joe Biden does better in the poll against the Republicans than Clinton. Biden leads Carson 45 percent to 42 percent and leads Rubio 46 percent to 43 percent. Paired against Bush, Biden does slightly better, beating the former governor 46 percent to 42 percent. Matched against Fiorina, Biden’s lead expands to double digits, leading her 49 percent to 38 percent. Biden does best when paired against Trump, beating him 52 percent to 38 percent.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., does worse against the Republicans. Sanders leads Trump 46 percent to 41 percent but comes up short against the other Republican candidates. Rubio leads Sanders 46 percent to 41 percent while Carson is ahead by a similar margin, 45 percent to 40 percent. Bush is ahead of Sanders, 45 percent to 41 percent, while Fiorina edges the Vermont senator 42 percent to 41 percent.
The two top candidates are upside down in Florida. A majority of Florida voters -- 51 percent -- see Clinton as unfavorable while 44 percent view her favorably. Trump does even worse as 57 percent see him as unfavorable while 35 percent see him in a favorable light.
Biden and Carson are in better shape. A majority -- 55 percent -- see Biden as favorable while 32 percent see him as unfavorable. Carson is seen as favorable by 44 percent while only 23 percent view him as unfavorable. Rubio is seen favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent while 35 percent see Fiorina favorably and 26 percent view her as unfavorable. Sanders is seen as favorable by 36 percent and unfavorable by 29 percent. Bush is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 29 percent.
Asked if the candidates are honest and trustworthy, Florida voters give Biden and Carson high marks with 71 percent saying the vice president is and 60 percent saying the same about Carson. Only 17 say Carson is not honest and 19 percent say that about Biden. Sanders also does well here with 53 percent saying he is honest and 18 percent saying he is not. Bush and Rubio are seen as honest and trustworthy by 54 percent apiece but 32 percent say Rubio is not and 38 percent say the same of Bush. Fiorina is seen as honest and trustworthy by 38 percent but 28 percent say she is not.
Florida voters are far more skeptical about Clinton and Trump. Barely a third -- 35 percent -- of Florida voters say Clinton is honest and trustworthy while 54 percent say she isn’t. Trump is seen as honest and trustworthy by 37 percent but 54 percent say he isn’t.
Asked about if the candidates had strong leadership qualities, 66 percent of voters think Bush does, 60 percent say Biden does, 59 percent think Trump does, 56 percent say Clinton does and 55 percent say Rubio has them. Bush also leads when voters are asked if the candidates have the right personality to deal with an international crisis.
Biden is seen by two-thirds -- 67 percent -- of those surveyed as the candidate who cares about concerns about average voters followed by Carson at 55 percent and Rubio at 54 percent. Trump does the worst here with 60 percent thinking he doesn’t care about average Americans’ problems while 35 percent say he does.
Asked whether the candidates had the right kind of experience, 74 percent say Biden does, 66 percent think Bush does and 64 percent say the same about Clinton.
The candidates who have never held office do worse here. Only 34 percent think Trump has the right kind of experience while 60 percent say he does not. A quarter of those surveyed -- 25 percent -- think Carson has the right experience but 54 percent think he doesn’t. Fiorina does slightly better as 45 percent think she doesn’t have the right kind of experience while 34 percent think she does.
But Florida voters also question the experience of two senators. A third -- 32 percent -- think Sanders has the right kind of experience while 44 percent say he doesn’t. Rubio also doesn’t do well here with 47 percent saying he doesn’t have the right kind of experience to be president while 38 percent say he does.
The poll of 1,173 Florida voters was taken from Sept. 25-Oct. 5 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
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Mr. Murphy,