Florida's reputation as America's crucial electoral battleground is getting an early test in an intra-party GOP squabble over the timing of the state's 2012 presidential primary.
The scheduled Jan. 31 date -- a month ahead of Super Tuesday -- would retain Florida's position as the first large state to hold a primary. Four earlier caucuses and primaries are set for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
But Florida's advanced calendar ran afoul of the Republican National Committee, which stripped the state of half its delegates in 2008. That sanction was moot because John McCain, who won the party's nomination, also won the Florida primary.
The 2012 campaign looks to be even more wide open, as a large field of untested GOP candidates jousts for the right to take on President Barack Obama.
Getting Florida's votes in early is important to both the state and the national party, Republicans argue. Waiting until after March 6 -- when several more states cast ballots -- effectively mutes the electoral voice of the nation's fourth-largest and highly diverse state, they say.
According to the national party's calendar-making rules, Florida will be subject to sanctions if it conducts its presidential primary before March 6 (Super Tuesday). Punishment could range from a denial of delegates to revocation of the national convention set for Tampa.
Florida Republicans take umbrage at such interference and threats, as they question the national party's efforts to dictate calendar rules.
"Only a drunken twit would purposely design such a system," Lew Oliver, chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, wrote in a letter last week.
Republican Party of Florida Chairman Dave Bitner has floated a compromise date of "late February" in an attempt to find a middle ground with the national party and the other states.
"There are many reasons why Florida should have an early and significant role in selecting the Republican presidential nominee, yet I understand the Republican National Committee is looking to maintain an orderly primary calendar," Bitner said in a statement.
Citing Gov. Rick Scott, Senate President Mike Haridopolos and House Speaker Dean Cannon, Bitner said, "We all agree that moving the primary into late February, making Florida fifth on the calendar, would sufficiently meet both criteria [of] respecting the calendar while preserving Florida's role in the process."
RNC officials did not return phone messages left by Sunshine State News. But Politico reported that RNC Chief of Staff Jeff Larson is scheduled to visit Tallahassee on Tuesday to meet with officials about the 2012 primary calendar and other matters.
Daniel Smith, political science professor at the University of Florida, says the state party should have the "upper hand" in negotiations with the RNC and other states.
"The RNC needs Florida in 2012. The Florida primary advances name recognition and money. It is the key to the White House -- not New Hampshire, Iowa or South Carolina."
No scenario envisions Florida leapfrogging ahead of those states -- and Seth McKee, political science professor at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, said that's a good thing.
"Political science research shows there are real detriments to front-loading the primary calendar with big states," McKee said. "The problem is that voters don't have as much information yet.
"There's a valid argument that smaller states have a better sense of candidates because it's easier to do retail politics there."
McKee said the national party put New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada first to achieve geographic and demographic diversity.
But proponents of an earlier Florida primary argue that the Sunshine State encompasses all that diversity -- along with a mother lode of 29 electoral votes.
As Oliver put it, Florida is more representative of the nation than "a collection of syrup farmers and ethanol freaks in New Hampshire and Iowa."
Cannon's spokesman, Katie Betta, called Florida "a good litmus test for any candidate. It's by far the biggest swing state and the speaker believes it should have a position at the front of the process."
Haridopolos said the overarching objective is to be fifth in line -- ahead of Super Tuesday.
"Our goal is not to pre-empt anyone, but to have a larger say in the process. We will do whatever we need to do to be fifth," the Merritt Island Republican said.
Haridopolos said Florida deserves an early calendar date because it is pivotal to the GOP's success in the general election.
"If we win Florida, we win the presidency," he explained.
In the last half-century, only two Republican presidential candidates who carried Florida in the general election failed to win the White House: Richard Nixon in 1960 and George H.W. Bush in 1992.
If all parties can agree on Bitner's "late February" date -- possibly Feb. 28 -- Floridians would still go to the polls before Super Tuesday's big March 6 balloting, when votes will be cast in a yet-to-be-finalized number of states.
Whatever comes of Tuesday's talks with the RNC, Haridopolos assured Sunshine State News, "The Tampa convention is safe. It's not moving."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.
