After getting walloped at the polls last week, Florida Democrats now face the challenge of finding a Senate candidate in 2016.
A large part of it depends, of course, on what Marco Rubio does. Earlier this year, Rubio said he would not run for another term if Democrats had a lock on the Senate or if he decides to run for president. Rubio starts off as the favorite if he wants a second term in the Senate, though Republican odds diminish if he decides to aim for the White House.
Either way, Democrats have a decision to make about finding a candidate. Looking at how they can recapture the Senate in 2016, James Hohmann at Politico was spot on with his assessment about the Democrats dilemma. They simply dont have the strongest of benches to find many credible candidates in Florida.
Hohmann mentions Charlie Crist as a possibility. Crist ran for the Senate twice before, losing as a Republican to Bob Graham in 1998 and to Rubio in 2010 when he left the GOP to run with no party affiliation. Last week Rick Scott edged Crist, now a Democrat, in the gubernatorial race. In the aftermath of his defeat, Crist is now facing questions about how he ran his campaign. He could be hard-pressed to build up another campaign war chest so quickly.
Its tough to see how Crist takes on Rubio, who beat him in the early stages of the Republican primary contest and did so again in the general election in 2010. And Crist could be a tough sale again considering his most recent loss; but Florida Democrats will need a candidate who would do no harm to Hillary Clinton or whoever is their presidential nominee in 2016. Crist could fit the bill, especially if Rubio doesnt run again.
Hohmann also mentions Gwen Graham, the daughter of Crists conquerer from 1998. True, she beat Steve Southerland in a Republican year, but Graham has not even taken her seat in Congress. Hohmann is not alone in pushing Graham. Dan Gelber pointed to her as one of the best players on the Democratic bench. But 2016 seems way too early to trot Graham out as a statewide candidate.
Only 31, Patrick Murphy is a rising star, but 2016 seems a little too early for this Democrat, as well. Murphy is a proven winner, edging Allen West in 2012 and routing Carl Domino in his Republican-leaning district. Time is on Murphys side, but he could take a gander at a Senate bid in 2016, especially if Rubio does not run.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz could also get a few looks. But Wasserman Schultz is far to the left of any of the other possible Democratic candidates and she presided over the DNC during the disastrous 2014 elections. Wasserman Schultzs path to power seems clearer on the House side than making an underdog Senate bid. A Wasserman Schultz bid would be unlikely, especially because it could hurt her old ally Clinton in a state both sides need badly in the 2016 presidential election.
One dark horse to keep an eye on is Ted Deutch, who scored an extremely impressive win in the Democratic primary back in August -- an astounding 92 percent of the vote -- before running over a write-in candidate last week. Deutch has had a spectacular rise in Florida politics. First elected to the Florida Senate in 2006 after making a name for himself as an attorney, he went left during his time in Tallahassee, with the glaring exception of when the Legislature decided to tackle foreign affairs.
Deutch brought out the "Protecting Floridas Investments Act" to ensure state funds were not going to companies working with Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Leading Florida to become the first state in the nation to support Iran divestment, Deutch made a name for himself at the state and national levels, testifying before Congress on the matter.
Since winning a congressional seat in 2010, Deutch has risen quickly up the Democratic ranks, currently serving as the ranking member from his party on the House Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee. This gives Deutch considerable sway on Middle Eastern issues and he and his chairwoman, Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, often team up to defend Israel. With Deutchs passion for foreign policy, moving up to the Senate is a possible option for down the road and he does make some sense for Democrats.
Deutch has never been as gaffe-prone as Wasserman Schultz and, while he is a liberal on most economic and social issues, he can often come off as more of a moderate because of his positions on international issues.
But Rubio aside, the likes of Murphy, Graham, Deutch and even Crist and Wasserman Schultz could have another shot at a Senate seat in the immediate future. Bill Nelson will be 76 in 2018, when he faces running for a fourth term and could call it a day. If Rubio runs for a second term, Democrats with Senate ambitions could find it easier to simply wait two years.
Whatever Rubio does, though, Democrats dont exactly have someone waiting in the wings to run for the Senate in 2016. With Florida expected to be the front line of the next presidential election, Democrats need to field an impressive candidate, something the party did not do against state officials Jeff Atwater and Adam Putnam last week.
Also out are candidates who could make too many missteps, because a bomb thrower like Alan Grayson, for example, or someone as gaffe-prone as Wasserman Schultz could do some damage in Florida to Clinton or whomever the Democrats field for president. Regardless, the party has to prioritize finding a candidate even as it recovers from last week's losses.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
