The Florida congressional district is set to radically change after the November elections. Between redistricting, some unexpected retirements and four representatives running for the U.S. Senate, almost half of the Sunshine State’s 27 congressional seats are in play in the primaries or the general election. With that many seats up for grabs, Florida can expect some differences in how it's represented starting in 2017.
Here's a look at where some of the main races stand:
CD1: With Republican Jeff Miller bowing out, expect a competitive GOP in this Panhandle seat. Two state legislators--Greg Evers and Matt Gaetz--are already running for this seat and other Republicans have also lined up to run. No surprise considering the number of military bases in the region, several of the Republican candidates--Robert Blake, Cris Dosev, Brian Frazier, John Mills, James Zumwalt--are veterans. There are also other outsiders like Rebekah Johansen Bydlak and Mark Wichern in the primary while local elected officials like Ashton Hayward and David Stafford could still enter the fray. Not all of these candidates are going to make the ballot of course but this isn’t going to be a two man contest between Evers and Gaetz. There are some Democrats and independents running but they simply won’t be factors in one of the most secure Republican districts in the state. Whoever wins the Republican primary at the end of August should be headed to Washington.
CD 2: This North Florida seat offers Republicans a prime opportunity to flip a seat currently held by the Democrats as Gwen Graham is headed to the sidelines after a single term. There’s an interesting four candidate Republican primary shaping up. Dr. Neal Dunn and Mary Thomas were joined by Jeff Moran and Ken Sukhia earlier this year. All four of the candidates are trying to find their niches and defended their bases. Already the attacks are flying and the stakes will only get higher in the months to come. No Democrat has stepped in to replace Graham yet though there is talk that Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda could run. Libertarian Rob Lapham is also running. Regardless of which Republican emerges in the primary, the GOP should be able to pick up this seat which was changed drastically by redistricting in its favor.
CD 4: Ander Crenshaw’s retirement was a surprise but Republicans should be able to keep this seat with ease. John Rutherford, Lake Ray and Hans Tanzler III are already off and running for the seat up in while Bill McClure hopes he can unite his St. Johns County base while his rivals divide up Jacksonville. There are also a few dark horses like businessman David Foxx and Deb Pueschel, who has run for the seat numerous times before with little impact, is back yet again. Other First Coast Republicans are eyeing jumping in as well. So far, no Democrat has gotten in while three candidates with no party affiliation are awaiting whoever wins the Republican primary. The GOP should keep this seat in November.
CD 5: Democrat Corrine Brown faces a far different district than she’s used to. Instead of winding through North Florida from Jacksonville to Orlando, the district now heads west through parts of Leon County. Democrats should be able to keep the seat but Brown now faces a major primary threat from Al Lawson who is making his third bid for Congress. Brown is far better known in the eastern part of this district while Lawson hopes to claim the western part. It’s no slam dunk for Brown by any means. Add in businesswoman LaShonda "LJ" Holloway and this is an interesting primary. Glo Smith, who Brown easily dispatched last time out, is back again on the Republican line while Michael Ploeckelmann is running with no party affiliation.
CD 6: With Ron DeSantis running for Senate, this seat has drawn the interest of several Republicans but even a few Democrats. Fred Costello, who placed second to DeSantis in the Republican primary in 2012, is back for another congressional bid but the state representative will have to work for it. David Santiago is also giving up his state House seat to run in the primary. Ric Keller wants to get back to Congress though this much of this district is outside his old base. Longtime activists and campaign pros Pat Mooney and Brandon Patty are now running for office in their own right while businessman G.G. Galloway and retired cop James Jusick are hoping Republicans are looking for an outsider. While Republicans should be favored here, Democrats think this race could be in play in November. Dwayne Taylor, a proven winner in Volusia County from his time in the state House and the Daytona Beach City Commission, is running for the Democratic nod. Democrat Jason Kendall took 41 percent against John Mica back in 2012 and now he’s running here. Businessman Bill McCullough and attorney George Pappas are also running. The GOP starts as the favorite to keep this seat but the Democrats could flip it if they have a big enough wave in November.
CD 7: Democrats seem to think they can build some momentum here against longtime Republican Congressman John Mica. The problem is they don’t have a candidate. The DCCC has sent a few attacks against Mica, including one from Victor Torres earlier this month for not doing enough to solve Puerto Rico’s debt problems. But Torres is running for the Florida Senate and there simply aren’t any Democrats in the race yet, dashing whatever hopes the DCCC has for redistricting carrying this seat their way. Mica does have a Republican challenger in businessman Mark Busch who served on the Orange County Soil and Water Commission. But Mica has been impressive in Republican primaries in recent election cycles, crushing Sandy Adams in a rare battle between two congressional incumbents back in 2012 and routing a field of opponents two years ago. Veteran Patrick Weingart is running here with no party affiliation.
CD 9: Alan Grayson’s decision to run for the Senate opened up this Democratic leaning seat in Central Florida. There’s a top tier of Democratic candidates including physician Dena Minning who has been romantically connected to Grayson, liberal activist Susannah Randolph and a state legislative veteran in Darren Soto. Ricardo Rangel, a former state represenative, just announced he was leaving the race. Dark horses Jason Borders and Valleri Crabtree are also trying to break through in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary does have a few candidates as Terry Howard makes another congressional bid, engineer and Navy veteran Wayne Liebnitzky makes his fist bow and Wanda Rentas looks to move up from the Kissimmee City Commission. Still, the Republicans would near a major wave to pick up this seat. There are two candidates running with no party affiliation.
CD 10: Democrats are poised to pick up this Central Florida seat. After the dust settled on redistricting, Republican Dan Webster scooted north as some top Democrats jumped in. Val Demings gave Webster a scare in 2012 and she’s back for another congressional bid. But she doesn’t have an open shot at the Democratic nomination as Bob Poe and Geri Thompson, both experienced candidates with long political careers of their own, are running in what should be a competitive primary. Dark horse Fatima Fahmy hopes to pull off an upset here. After losing out to Glo Smith in the Republican primary to run against Corrine Brown two years ago, Thuy Lowe is back for another congressional try but she’ll have a hard time in November against whoever the Democrats nominate. Jeff Rabinowitz is running here with no party affiliation.
CD 11: After three terms in Congress, Rich Nugent bowed out but the GOP should keep this seat. Nugent is backing his former chief of staff Justin Grabelle but there are two other Republican candidates in the primary. After redistricting turned his district blue, Dan Webster moved north to run here. Conservative pastor Jack Martin is also running in the Republican primary and other Republicans could jump in the primary. Dave Koller, who lost to Nugent last time out, is the only Democrat in the race so far and he’ll have a tough time being competitive after getting blown out in 2014. Matt Schnackenberg is running on the Libertarian line here.
CD 13: Democrats have a great shot at flipping this seat as David Jolly runs for the Senate. Charlie Crist chased Eric Lynn out of the race earlier this month and is a strong favorite to make an unlikely political comeback following his defeats in 2010 and 2014. Crist doesn’t have an open shot at the Democratic nomination as Don Hackett and Kimberly Walker stand in his way. Over on the Republican side, Mark Bircher, who lost to Jolly in the primary back in early 2014, is back for a second run for Congress. Attorney and veteran Paul DeCailly is also running for the Republican nod as are dark horses Will Levrson and Sharon Russ. Jean-Paul Piccion is in the race with no party affiliation. Redistricting made this seat far more hospitable for Democrats, putting Crist in the catbird seat in this race.
CD 18: Patrick Murphy is leaving this seat after two terms to run for the Senate. This is a battleground district but the major parties have very different nominating contests. Randy Perkins is a clear favorite on the Democratic side and has cleared the decks of most of his competition even as attorney Jonathan Chane and engineer Juan Xuna try to catch him. The Republican primary is far more crowded. Carl Domino, the former state representative who as blown out by Murphy in 2014, is back for another try. From her time on the Martin County School Board and her marriage to incoming state Senate President Joe Negron, Rebecca Negron has a lot of name recognition as she aims for the seat. Attorney Rick Kozell is looking to move up the Republican ranks by stressing his conservatism. Disabled veteran Brian Mast is also playing up his conservative credentials in this race. So is conservative pundit Noelle Nikpour. There are also dark horses like Dr. Mark Freeman and Rick Roth trying to make their move in the primary. Nurse and Navy vet Carla Spalding pulled out of the GOP contest to run with no party affiliation.
CD 23: Tim Canova is the real deal as he challenges Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic primary. Canova has tapped into liberal discontent with Wasserman Schultz, especially after she slammed the door on Bernie Sanders getting more debates against her old ally Hillary Clinton. To be sure, Canova is well funded at the national level and is positioned to give Wasserman Schultz a run. But Wasserman Schultz has remained popular with Democrats back home and does have the advantage as the summer begins. Two other Democrats in the race hurt Canova by splitting the anti-Wasserman Schultz vote. Republicans would love to pick up this seat but it’s simply not happening. Joe Kaufman is back for a third run for Congress. After getting blown out by Joe Geller in a good year for the GOP, attorney Marty Feigenbaum is also running for the Republican nomination. There are at least four candidates running with no party affiliation but whoever win the Democratic nomination should keep this seat for the Democrats.
CD 26: Democrats are practically drooling over picking up this seat as Republican Carlos Curbelo faces a far more hostile race after the latest redistricting effort. For his part, Curbelo has tried to claim the center and has been one of Donald Trump’s loudest Republican critics. Curbelo has also been helped inadvertently by the Democrats. Annette Taddeo continues to underwhelm even as the Democratic establishment tried to coronate her. Despite losing to Curbelo two years ago, former Congressman Joe Garcia has put together a solid effort so far and will give Taddeo problems in the primary. Democrats are still favored here but any hopes of Taddeo marching easily into this seat have evaporated.
