When they began crafting the Fair Districts amendments years ago, one of the goals supporters had was to create more competitive congressional districts. In at least some instances, under a draft of the map recently released by the staff of the Senate Reapportionment Committee, they might have succeeded.
Overall, there are few major partisan swings in the districts, according to an analysis of the numbers by the News Service of Florida. And all in all, the map would still have 15 congressional districts that were carried by GOP presidential candidate John McCain in 2008, despite the addition of two seats. Obama would have carried 12 of the districts as they're proposed now, instead of the 10 he carried under the current map.
But several of Florida's seats would become more competitive under the new plan. For example, Rep. Rich Nugent's district voted for McCain by almost 13 points under the old map; the Senate proposal would nudge that number down to about 4 points.
Others appear relatively secure. Rep. Corrine Brown, a Democratic lawmaker from Jacksonville who has vociferously fought the Fair Districts amendments, would still be in a district that went for Obama by approximately 42 points.
Perhaps the most intriguing problem for Republicans is whether and how to untangle a mess that could prompt Rep. Allen West to move from the 22nd Congressional District that he currently represents to the 16th Congressional District represented by Rep. Tom Rooney.
West's current district would become much more Democratic under the proposal released this week, going from a 4-point edge for President Obama in 2008 to a 12-point edge. Rooney's nearby district would go from a slight edge for McCain to a slight edge for Obama, but would still be substantially less Democratic than West's current seat.
"If there is a GOP loser in redistricting, it is West," Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant, wrote in a recent blog post. "That being said, he is a big fundraiser and hard worker, though I am doubtful his politics line up too well with this new seat."
It wasn't long after that speculation began to mount that West would jump into Rooney's district.
Jonathan Blythe, West's chief of staff, declined to rule out a change by West if the maps were not altered by the Legislature.
"I think it behooves the 113th Congress ... that Congressman Allen West and Congressman Tom Rooney serve the people of Florida," he said.
Blythe said, though, that it's premature to talk about a map that still needs approval from the full Senate and full House before making its way to the governor and through the legal process.
"What we're looking at is one proposal at the moment," he said.
Some incumbents would be drawn into the same districts, including Reps. Alcee Hastings, a Democrat, and David Rivera, a Republican. The district would now be slightly Democratic.
But congressmen are not required to live in the districts they are elected to represent. So Rep. John Mica would no longer live in his 7th Congressional District, but he could move to avoid butting heads with freshman Republican Rep. Sandy Adams.
