House District 57 in Hillsborough County is a decidedly swing district and one where Democrats are hoping they can take a seat back from Republicans as longtime GOP incumbent Faye Culp leaves office.
Democrats and Republicans are nearly even in number in this South Tampa area, with Democrats with a tiny advantage -- and they think they have a good candidate in Stacy Frank. This, they thought, at least on paper, would be a place where they could maybe flip a seat from R-to-D.
But the challenge, everyone keeps saying, is that Republicans are highly motivated and will turn out in larger numbers this year. If this critical swing Interstate 4 corridor district is a bellwether, the GOP hype may be right. So far, they are voting in larger numbers, even in areas where Democrats would expect to have the lead.
Earlier this week almost 2,700 Republicans had either voted early already or gotten an absentee ballot in this district, to just under 2,000 for Democrats -- meaning if it continues and depending on how independents break, it looks good for the Republican trying to keep Culps seat in the R column, Dana Young.
So at least here, the hype about GOP enthusiasm appears to be true, at least early on. Republicans appear to be winning the turnout war.
In fact the Florida Republican Party said Thursday that the GOP was ahead in turnout statewide by more than 15,000 votes on the first two days of this week. While 2008 was an anomaly year the other way with heavier than usual Democratic turnout its still worth pointing out that by this point in 2008 the GOP trailed in turnout by nearly 75,000 votes.
But for all the high fives in Florida Republican campaign offices, the state may not be a barometer for the nation as a whole which observers would note is often the case. So far, Democrats are outnumbering Republicans at the polls in several states. Democrats have out-balloted Republicans in Iowa, Maryland, and North Carolina, among other places, party officials said this week. In addition to Florida, Republican voters are turning out better in Colorado.
At the center of the proverbially important I-4 corridor in Orange County, which includes Orlando, Democrats hold a pretty good-size voter registration advantage, outnumbering Republicans about 273,600 to about 192,200. But as of Thursday, nearly 4,000 Republican voters had turned out, to just about 3,300 Democratic voters.
The storys the same in Polk County, also along I-4, between Orlando and Tampa. There, Democrats also are in the majority, with about 12,000 more registered voters than the GOP. But as of close of business on Wednesday, more than 1,900 Republican voters had shown up while fewer than 1,700 Democrats had voted.
At the other end of the I-4 corridor from House District 57 is Volusia County, which couldnt get much more swing, having nearly given Charlie Crist and Jim Davis a tie in the last gubernatorial election four years ago. Crist won Volusia by just 4,000 votes out of more than 153,000 cast, and President Barack Obama won the county two years ago.
Democrats would like to hold back the Republican tide there, and so far its hard to tell which way that county is leaning. Republicans were ahead in turnout the first few days, but Democrats had a surge of voters on Wednesday and now the two parties are just about even.
Every election year both parties talk about the need to do well in the I-4 corridor, which swings back and forth in performance between the parties depending on turnout and how nonaffiliated voters are feeling.
If Democrats cant boost turnout in the area, it could make the difference for their gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink, who has a very narrow lead over Republican Rick Scott in most recent polls, one that could evaporate easily if the sample used by pollsters didnt fully account for a heavy Republican turnout.
It also could make a difference in two closely watched Central Florida congressional races, both along the corridor. Democrats Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas have a GOP bull's-eye on their seats. The Grayson race, in particular, is seen as close one that could break one way or the other based on turnout. The challenger in the race is well-known and well-liked former state legislator Dan Webster.
Kosmas is seen as trailing Republican state Rep. Sandy Adams, and Democrats were hoping that strong Democratic turnout could help her turn back the challenge.
