Businessman Donald Trump is leading the pack of Republican presidential candidates in Florida but there’s a battle for second place in the Sunshine State, according to a new poll.
Jacksonville University’s (JU) Public Policy Institute released a poll of Florida Republicans on Thursday which shows Trump ahead with 24 percent with a host of candidates clustered up for second place.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., takes 17 percent in the poll with businesswoman Carly Fiorina right behind at 16 percent. Dr. Ben Carson and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., pull 15 percent apiece.
"The conventional wisdom was that former Gov. Bush or Sen. Rubio were a lock to win the Florida primary," said Rick Mullaney on Thursday, the director of the JU Public Policy Institute and a former Jacksonville mayoral candidate in 2011. "This poll, however, shows a much more competitive race in Florida with five candidates polling in double figures. It also reflects the strong debate performances by Mrs. Fiorina and Sen. Rubio in the last debate, with both moving up substantially."
The rest of the field polls in low single digits. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, gets 4 percent while Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, takes 2 percent. Three candidates -- Gov. Chris Christie, R-N,J,, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.--take 1 percent apiece. So does Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., who got out of the race on Monday. Other candidates -- former Gov. Jim Gilmore, R-Va., U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.., Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La., former Gov. George Pataki, R-N.Y., and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa.--get less than one-half of 1 percent each.
Asked if there were any candidates they would not vote for, 30 percent say Trump while 13 percent say they will not back Bush and 12 percent say the same about Paul.
While he is not leading the pack, Florida Republicans have a high opinion of Rubio with 80 percent seeing him as favorable while 12 percent see him as unfavorable. Carson also does well here with 78 percent of Florida Republicans viewing him in a favorable light while 12 percent see him unfavorably. Fiorina is seen as favorable by 73 percent of those surveyed while 11 percent view her unfavorably. While a quarter of those surveyed -- 25 percent -- view Bush as unfavorable, two-thirds of Florida Republicans -- 68 percent -- see him as favorable. Half of Florida Republicans see Trump as favorable while 40 percent see him in an unfavorable light. Kasich is less known with 42 percent seeing him favorably while 21 percent view him unfavorably.
"While Trump remains in the lead, his high unfavorable rating and the 30 percent of respondents in the poll who said they would not vote for him suggests there is a ceiling of support for him in Florida," said Paulina Rippere, an assistant professor of political science at JU. "As candidates drop out and the field narrows, the poll results indicate that these votes will go to other candidates, and not to Trump."
Still, the poll does offer Trump and other candidates like Carson and Fiorina who have never held elected office. Two-thirds of Florida Republicans -- 67 percent -- say elected experience is not needed in the White House while only 29 percent say it is. Almost half of those surveyed -- 45 percent -- say experience in business is preferable in the Oval Office than elected experience. Only 18 percent of Florida Republicans think serving in government is better than working in the private sector when it comes to preparing for the White House while 37 percent see value in both areas. An overwhelming majority of Florida Republicans -- 83 percent -- disagree that political experience is needed to be a good president.
The poll of 585 Florida Republicans was taken from Sept. 17-22 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
