Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump can be pardoned if they sing along with Liza Minnelli and Frank Sinatra when it comes to “it’s up to you, New York, New York.”
The Empire State hasn’t been that important in recent presidential primaries but it’s often played a decisive role over the years. After a scare from Jesse Jackson in the Great Lakes, Mike Dukakis carried New York in 1988 and was on his way to the Democratic presidential nomination. Four years later, after getting upset by Jerry Brown in Connecticut, Bill Clinton rebounded to win New York, ending the last chance to trip up his path to the nomination.
With a little over a week and a half to go until the primary, Trump and Hillary Clinton are in the lead in New York but they also need to win their home turf. Bernie Sanders has the wind at his back after winning the Wisconsin primary and a loss in the Empire State would cause the Democratic leadership to panic about Clinton’s electability and bring back buzz that the party will turn to Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump also needs a win after Ted Cruz beat him in Wisconsin. Monmouth University released a poll on Wednesday showing Trump leading in his home state, taking 52 percent followed by John Kasich with 25 percent and Cruz with 17 percent. But this poll was taken before Cruz’s win in Wisconsin and now Rudy Giuliani is flirting with the Texas senator.
Trump brought out a large crowd in Long Island as he turned his focus to New York this week and should be headed for a win. If Trump can carry most congressional districts, he should be able to make off with a major delegate haul as he tries to reach the 1,237 threshold and hold off a convention fight. New York isn’t going Republican any time soon--it last backed a GOP presidential candidate back in 1984--but it can give Trump a major boost for his bid.
To his credit, Trump has built an impressive operation in New York led by Congressman Chris Collins, businessman Carl Paladino who was the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate in 2010 and Duchess County Sheriff Butch Anderson. More than 30 county GOP chairmen from across the Empire State are backing Trump. All of this makes Trump a heavy favorite--and a loss in New York, which is admittedly unlikely, would be a major blow to his hopes of winning the Republican nod.
Hillary Clinton is in much the same boat as Trump. Even with Sanders being popular with liberals, Clinton should be able to defend her old stomping grounds. Clinton has been a far better campaigner in New York than she has been anywhere else. Republicans mocked her “listening tour” when she first turned her eyes to running for the Senate in New York but Clinton did far better upstate and in the New York City suburbs than expected and she blew out Rick Lazio in 2000. Six years later, she won in a rout to keep her seat.
Like Trump, the stakes are high for Clinton. Sanders is playing up his Brooklyn roots and has plenty of room to make a splash in New York. A loss here for Clinton would be disastrous and Democrats would be in full fledged panic mode with more questions about her electability.
There’s much on the line but frontrunners like Dukakis and Bill Clinton seem to rise to the occasion in New York. That bodes well for Hillary Clinton and Trump in the days to come.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
