Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a strong lead in polls released on Tuesday of two key primary states.
Trump, a businessman who has never held political office but is well-known for his high-profile career, which included hosting a reality TV show, is out front in a new poll of New Hampshire, the first primary state.
Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to Democrats, released a poll showing Trump in command of the Granite State with 35 percent. Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, places second with 11 percent while businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who had a strong performance in the first round of debates, takes third with 10 percent.
Trump leads with tea party voters, conservatives, independents who plan to vote in the primary and both men and women. Most New Hampshire Republicans -- 56 percent -- see Trump in a favorable light while 32 percent see him as unfavorable.
“This is by far the best we’ve found Donald Trump doing anywhere during his entire surge,” said Dean Debnam, the president of PPP. “If anything he just seems to be getting stronger as the campaign rolls on.”
The rest of the field stands in single digits. Former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., and Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., are knotted together in fourth with 7 percent each followed by Dr. Ben Carson with 6 percent. Walker had been in the pole position in a previous PPP poll of New Hampshire from earlier this year.
Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and U.S. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., take 4 percent apiece. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., pulls 3 percent while former Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, takes 2 percent. Three candidates -- U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., former Gov. George Pataki, R-N.Y., and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa..-- garner 1 percent each. Three other candidates -- former Gov. Jim Gilmore, R-Va., former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., and Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La. -- take less than 1 percent each.
Besides Walker, PPP noted three other candidates were on the decline -- Cruz, Huckabee and Paul.
“Cruz's 10-point drop from 14 percent to 4 percent is a little bit misleading,” PPP noted. “When we last polled the state he was still enjoying the bump he received following his candidacy announcement. It's worse news for Paul -- he's declined 8 points from 12 percent to 4 percent but more notably he's seen a major blow to his image. In April he had a +29 net favorability rating at 54/25. That's now dropped a remarkable 44 points to a -15 spread at 34/49. We've found Paul underwater all four places we've polled since the Republican debate. It's a similarly bad story for Huckabee. He's dropped from 7 percent to less than 1 percent and he's also seen his favorability go from +16 at 48/32 to -7 at 34/41. For Paul and Huckabee, it's not just that other candidates are passing them by -- they are becoming increasingly unpopular themselves.”
PPP insisted, “Bush is really struggling.” The former Florida governor is upside down with New Hampshire Republicans with 41 percent seeing him as unfavorable while 38 percent see him as favorable. “This is largely a function of his unpopularity with conservatives,” PPP noted about Bush. “Among voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative' just 34 percent have a positive opinion of him to 48 percent who have a negative one.”
The poll of 436 usual New Hampshire Republican primary voters was taken from Aug. 21-24 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.
Trump is also out front in a poll of South Carolina which holds its primary after New Hampshire. Monmouth University released a poll of South Carolina Republicans on Tuesday which shows Trump with 30 percent followed by Carson in second with 15 percent. Bush takes third with 9 percent.
“We’ve become accustomed to Donald Trump leading in every poll, as the candidate himself likes to remind us,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It’s interesting that Ben Carson, whose parents come from neighboring Georgia, is outpolling the state’s own senator as a second choice.
“Political experience is not a particularly valuable commodity this primary season,” added Murray, noting Fiorina, who like Trump and Carson has never held elected office, tied for fourth with Rubio at 6 percent each.
Cruz takes 5 percent while Graham, despite hailing from the Palmetto State, pulls 4 percent, tying him with Walker. Huckabee, Kasich and Paul take 3 percent each. Christie gets 2 percent while Gimore, Jindal, Patacki and Perry draw less than 1 percent.
The poll of 453 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was taken from Aug. 20-23 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
