While many pundits and observers continue to downplay his potential candidacy, billionaire Donald Trump has rocketed to the top of the field of possible candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination to take on Barack Obama in 2012, according to a new poll.
A Gallup poll taken from April 15 through April 20 found that Trump was tied at the top of the poll with former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 16 percent each. Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts placed third with 13 percent while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was in fourth with 10 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas tied with former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich in fifth with 6 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann took 4 percent, slightly ahead of her fellow Minnesota Republican former Gov. Tim Pawlenty who tied for eighth with Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana on 3 percent. Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania took 2 percent apiece, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman had the backing of 1 percent of those polled. Two other candidates -- businessman Herman Cain and former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico who announced his candidacy on Thursday -- took less than one-half of 1 percent.
Trumps strong showing in Republican nomination preferences is partly a function of his high profile, insisted Jeffrey M. Jones of Gallup. That is a typical pattern in early nomination preference polls. Once campaigning gets underway in earnest later this year, and after the initial primaries and caucuses next year, some of the currently lesser-known candidates may emerge as stronger candidates, and some of the better-known candidates may fade.
Jones pointed to the strong showing of then-Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Al Gores running mate in 2000, in polls before the contest for the partys 2004 presidential nomination contest began. Despite initially strong poll numbers, Lieberman failed to win a single primary or caucus and drew in single digits everywhere, save Delaware, before bailing out of the race. Jones also referred to the strong initial poll numbers of two candidates from New York -- Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Clinton -- who faded in the 2008 nomination contests.
The lack of a clear front-runner in this years field is a distinct departure from prior Republican contests, noted Jones. That situation could still change in the current campaign, since Romney is the only one of the four leading contenders who has taken any formal steps toward running for president.
With Trump taken out of the mix, Huckabee led the poll with 19 percent, Romney placed second with 16 percent and Palin in third with 13 percent. Gingrich and Paul tied for fourth with 7 percent each followed by Bachmann with 5 percent. Daniels moved up to seventh with 4 percent and Pawlenty and Barbour took 3 percent each. Santorum remained at 2 percent while Johnson and Huntsman took 1 percent each.
The poll also found, despite his focus on questioning Obamas birth certificate, that Trump was the top choice among self-described liberals and moderates with 21 percent, followed by Romney with 14 percent. Huckabee led conservatives with 18 percent, followed by Trump and Romney who each took 13 percent.
Other possible and announced candidates include former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, Giuliani, activist Fred Karger, former state Chief Justice Roy Moore of Alabama, former Gov. George Pataki of New York, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana.
The poll of 1,047 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
