Forecasts for the cost of Floridas Medicaid program were set to be agreed upon Thursday, but because of discrepancies between the estimates of two state agencies, they were delayed.
The Agency for Health Care Administration estimated that Medicaid expenditures in the state for the 2011-2012 fiscal year will be about $22.25 billion, while the Office of Economic and Demographic Research put the figure at $21.99 billion, a difference of about $257 million. Such a difference between the two forecasts is not unusual, but a jump in general revenue funding for other areas of the Medicaid budget led both agencies back to the drawing board.
At issue was AHCAs estimate of more than $1 billion in general revenue expenditures to pay for hospital inpatient services (one of the largest line items in the Medicaid budget). The figure represents a 117 percent increase over the agencys estimate for the current fiscal year, even though the overall costs for hospital inpatient services increased only 15 percent.
Youre going from a $3.9 billion spend to a $4.6 billion spend (on hospital inpatient services). It seemed like the (general revenue) was a little bit out of whack, said Eric Pridgeon, staff director for the House Health Care Appropriations Committee.
Staffers will reconvene on Dec. 10 to agree upon an expenditure forecast for Medicaid, which means there wont be solid numbers for legislators to review heading into committee meetings next week.
Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, and House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park, have targeted the Medicaid program for reform during the upcoming legislative session as it is expected to take up an ever-increasing portion of the state budget in the coming years.
All the more important, then, for staffers to draft accurate forecasts for the programs likely expenditures.
What youre seeing is the estimating conference rolling up its sleeves and trying to get a very detailed reconciliation of what actually happened last year, in addition to estimates of future expenditures, said Amy Baker, legislative coordinator for the EDR.
During a hearing on Medicaid reform last month, Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, chairman of the Health and Human Services Subcommittee, indicated that he would like to move away from the pay and chase method the program currently runs.
Negron and other senators, however, have insisted they will start with a blank page as they consider Medicaid reform.
Discovering just how costly the program will be, however, could prove more difficult than the reform itself. Costs are increasing, but exactly how much is still uncertain.
You start seeing where the state is going to have increasing costs when you start going out two, three, four years, Baker said.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
