Carlos Curbelo is the congressional incumbent in Florida with the biggest target on his back headed into the 2016 elections.
The DNCC is already gunning for Curbelo since his South Florida swing district is a far different place in presidential elections than off-year contests. Democrat Joe Garcia came to Congress here in 2012 on Barack Obamas coattails Garcia was also helped by the never-ending parade of scandals attached to Republican David Rivera.
But Garcia proved incapable of staying in power. He blundered badly on the public stage, constantly shooting himself in the foot and getting mired in scandals of his own, though by no means as much as Rivera did.
Curbelo beat Garcia 52 percent to 48 percent in a good year for Republicans in Florida and around the nation. That small margin of victory has given Democrats hope they can beat him next time out, especially given how that party does better in Florida during presidential elections.
There are plenty of whispers that Garcia could run again. Fresh from her lieutenant governor bid, Annette Taddeo is also throwing her name into the mix. But neither of them have shown much luck when it comes to running for Congress. Before beating Rivera in 2012 when that Republican was seemingly facing new scandal charges every week, Garcia had lost to him in 2010 and came up short against Mario Diaz-Balart in 2008.
Taddeo has an even worse electoral history, losing a congressional bid to Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and coming in third in a county commission seat primary. Adding her to the Democratic ticket in 2014 was supposed to boost Crist in South Florida. That simply did not happen as Democratic turnout simply sputtered in Miami and Broward County. Despite having been the boss of Miami-Dade Democrats, Taddeo failed in her own backyard. Crist made a miscalculation in adding her to the ticket. While nobody votes for whoever the lieutenant governor candidate is, running mates are supposed to at least deliver their home turf. Taddeo did not accomplish that while other Democrats could have done better as Crists running mate.
Curbelo is vulnerable come 2016 but he can help himself by staying out of trouble, something Rivera and Garcia did not do when they represented the district. So far, Republicans are doing all they can for Curbelo, and letting him offer the Spanish response to Barack Obamas State of the Union address was a nice feather in his cap.
To be sure, Curbelo has assets of his own. He is young, charismatic and hard-working. But his biggest assets come 2016 might be that he is not Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo who have lost far more than they have won in their political careers. Democrats might want to find a fresher face here if they want to pick up a competitive congressional seat come 2016.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
