Gov. Charlie Crist's triangulation strategy of plucking off Democrats appears to be working. The Republican-turned-independent leads a three-way U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released Friday.
Crist garnered 37 percent, followed by 32 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 17 percent for Jeff Greene, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, according to the latest poll.
If U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek were the Democratic nominee, Crist's lead would be even larger -- 39 to 33 percent for Rubio and 13 percent for Meek.
The race for governor is a squeaker between Democrat Alex Sink, the state chief financial officer, and either of the Republican candidates, retired health-care executive Rick Scott or Attorney General Bill McCollum, the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac said.
Scott gets 29 percent to Sink's 27 percent with independent Bud Chiles receiving 14 percent. If McCollum wins the GOP primary, he would get 27 percent to 26 percent for Sink and 14 percent for Chiles.
In the Senate race, Crist's lead is based on getting half the independent voters, about 20 percent of Republicans and about 40 percent of Democrats.
"His 53 to 37 percent voter approval of his job as governor probably is a factor in his lead," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Crist's margin in the general election matchups compare to a 37-33-17 percent lead with Meek in the race and 40-33-14 percent with Greene running in a June 9 poll.
"Rubio appears to be getting no traction beyond Tea Party activists, the Republican Party and the Fox News crowd," observed University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith.
But the Rubio campaign argues that the numbers can be deceiving, noting that Crist's numbers have remained virtually static even as he reaped widespread media exposure during the Gulf oil spill. Crist also continues to lose ground among Republicans.
"Marco Rubio overtook Charlie Crist once, and he will do it again when it matters," said Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos.
Smith also noted that Crist has benefited from the "nasty campaign between Greene and Meek."
"There has been little movement in the Senate race over the past two months. Gov. Charlie Crist's small lead comes as neither Democrat breaks 20 percent in the trial heats. If that were to be the case in November, Gov. Crist would have a very good chance to win," Brown said.
"But if the Democratic nominee can move into the mid-to-high 20s, Crist's chances decrease substantially," he added.
Greene's campaign believes that's exactly how things will play out.
"Momentum continues to grow for Democratic outsider and proven jobs creator Jeff Greene. As the election moves forward he will make the clear distinction between career politicians Kendrick Meek, self-proclaimed conservative Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio, all which are involved in ongoing corruption scandals," said Greene spokesman Luis Vizcaino.
Florida voters give Crist a 49 to 35 percent favorability rating with 13 percent who say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Rubio has a 35 to 24 percent favorability, with 38 percent who don't know enough about him.
The "don't know enough" score for Meek and Green is 64 percent each.
"At this point, Crist's edge is in name identification. When those numbers even out, as they will to a large degree, we'll have a better picture of how the race stands," Brown said.
The dead heat in the governor's race stems largely from a drop in the numbers for Scott and McCollum as they bombard each other with negative television ads, Quinnipiac found.
In June, registered voters gave McCollum a 37 to 29 percent favorable rating. Now it is 43 to 27 percent unfavorable. Scott's rating has gone from 31 to 22 percent favorable to a 29 to 30 percent split during the same period.
"This poll, like others, shows Rick Scott as the front-runner of both the primary and general. Floridians are looking for a principled conservative outsider with a detailed economic plan and proven record of creating jobs andbalancing budgets -- not flip-flopping career politicians or liberal ideologues beholden to (President) Obama," said Scott spokesman Joe Kildea.
Sink, meanwhile, gets a 25 to 15 percent favorability, with 58 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion, little changed from June 9.
"When candidates throw mud at each other, they can't avoid being splattered also. That is what has been happening and the beneficiary of the millions spent on negative ads Attorney General Bill McCollum and Rick Scott have been airing at this point is state CFO Alex Sink," Brown said.
"Whether that will remain the case once the Republican nomination is settled, we'll see. Chiles remains in the mid-teens, and a factor in the November election."
Citing her "money in the bank," UF's Smith said, "Sink is the brightest hope for Democrats in the state."
Sink spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said, "With Alex Sink continuing to be neck-and-neck with both Republicans in public polling, it's clear Floridians are looking for an alternative to the out-of-touch attacks of both Rick Scott and Bill McCollum.
"Floridians see that Alex Sink shares their priorities and will work to grow our economy, improve our schools, and hold politicians accountable," Jennings said.
Chiles's camp also sounded a confident note.
"I don't see how the other candidates can look at these results an be anything other than extremely worried," said Chiles spokesman Jim McClellan.
"Bud has been in this race for less than 60 days. The Republicans and Democrats just haven't mustered any excitement," he said.
In other findings, pollsters found:
- President Barack Obama's job approval remains underwater in Florida, with a negative 46 to 50 percent.
- Florida voters support 62 to 34 percent the idea of a state constitutional amendment to ban drilling within 10 miles of the Florida coast and say 72 to 24 percent they want a referendum on the ballot on that question. A special session of the Legislature declined to do so last month.
- U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., gets a 46 to 30 percent job approval rating, while voters disapprove 25 to 21 percent of the job Republican Sen. George LeMieux is doing. LeMieux was appointed by Crist to hold the seat vacated by retiring Mel Martinez until Crist could run for the office this fall.
Quinnipiac's survey, conducted July 22-27, surveyed 969 Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 559-4719.
