Barring a miracle, which some might compare to the parting of the Red Sea, the GOP isnt in danger of losing control of the Florida Senate.
But in part because of redistricting, the states minority party has its eyes on taking two district seats from red to blue and grabbing a third -- including one which has the only two sitting senators going head to head -- to narrow that margin from last session's 28-12 Republican advantage. Yet they are also in danger of dropping another.
Thats why $459,612 has come to the eight candidates -- Republicans William McBride, Rep. Dorothy Hukill of Port Orange, Ellyn Bogdanoff of Fort Lauderdale, and John Couriel, and Democrats Rep. Darren Soto of Orlando, Frank Bruno, Sen. Maria Sachs of Delray, and Sen. Gwen Margolis of Miami -- just between Aug. 10 and Sept. 14, according to documents submitted to the state Division of Elections.
In addition, the two parties have spent nearly $200,000 consulting, conducting polls, providing staffing and other in-kind services for the candidates in the four races: District 8 (Hukill-Bruno), 14 (McBride-Soto), 34 (Bogdanoff-Sachs) and 35 (Couriel-Margolis).
District 8
Through redistricting, the seat that runs from south Daytona Beach to Marion County is deemed competitive, as 23 of the new districts are solid Republican-leaning and 15 are Democrat-leaning.
When it comes to fundraising -- thus being able to get and keep ones message or name out before the public -- Hukill should have the edge, as the party has been backing the campaign and business groups have been behind her.
But the Florida Democratic Party has earlier called the race its top opportunity to pick up a seat.
In the latest filing period, Bruno drew $65,895 to the $64,275 raised by Hukill, an attorney who was the mayor of Port Orange before joining the state House eight years ago.
Bruno has spent 20 years on Volusia County Council, elected for the last eight years as the chairman.
The GOP spent $12,127 in the filing period on the contest, while the Democrats directed $8,325 for the district that leans slightly Democratic, but which went for Florida Gov. Rick Scott in 2010.
District 14
Soto is one of the unique Democrats to get a more favorable rating --although not an endorsement --from the Florida Chamber of Commerce than his Republican challenger. That is because McBride is a personal-injury lawyer, which goes against the grain of the chambers push to put restrictions on frivolous lawsuits.
Soto has been slightly ahead when it comes to dollars-to-dollars campaign contributions, but the hill is made much more difficult as McBridehas shown that he isnt afraid of putting his own money into the contest -- so far, $205,000. That means that while Soto is known for having run state House contests in the area, McBrides face and name should be filling the TV and radio airwaves as people soon begin to vote.
However, a bigger factor may be the demographics, which includes a large number of Puerto Ricans who may be drawn out for President Obama and liberal magnet Alan Grayson and punch D up and down the ticket.
Another of the statesbig business lobbyists, Associated Industries of Florida, has decided to sit this contest out based upon the Tallahassee-based groups announcement last week that it had made its final endorsements of the election cycle and the Central Florida contest wasnt on the list.
District 34
The sacrificial lamb of the Senates 2012 redistricting effort.
District 34 has become the only contest that pits two sitting senators head-to-head. The district leans Democrat and because of Floridas status as a swing state is seeing plenty of Obama campaign action in efforts to rally the voters to the polls.
(There, redistricting actually placed two other sitting senators that were not term-limited from office into the same district, but that situation was easily solved when one simply moved to a neighboring district that didnt have an incumbent.)
That should spell good news for Sachs. But Bogdanoff, who had plenty of face time in the media earlier this year for her efforts to revamp the states gambling industry, isnt rolling over.
Bogdanoff pulled in $94,841 in the past month, while the RPOF spent $21,210 on polls and another $29,190 for consulting.
Sachs, on whom the Florida Democratic Party spent $37,073for polls, staffing, research and consulting in just the last filing period, picked up $63,866 in the first post-primary fundraising period.
District 35
If the GOP drops any seats, this South Florida district is most likely the area they can flip the colors from blue to red.
The long-serving Sen. Gwen Margolis, D-Miami, has been able to outspend former federal prosecutor John Couriel, in part because shes having to put in her own money to get her message out.
Couriel hauled in $57,513 during the latest filing period, far head of Margolis $21,100. Yet, because she earlier put $160,000 of her own money into the campaign, Margolis was able to double Couriels in the prior four weeks and, up to this point, throughout the contest.
Still, compared to the other contests, in-kind contributions from the parties during the filing period was directed at internal polling, with the GOP spending $6,197 and the Democrats $15,000.
But the odds may still be long for a GOP victory, as an analysis by the Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times determined that the voters in the new district voted 61 percent to 39 percent for President Obama over John McCain in 2008 and the district numbers were nearly the same for Alex Sink over Rick Scott in the 2010 gubernatorial contest.
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 215-9889.
