The current national mood ahead of the midterm elections is unfavorable for Democrats across the country. While thats true for many parts of Florida, Senate District 14 isnt one of them.
Florida Rep. Perry McGriff, D-Gainesville, is challenging incumbent Sen. Steve Oelrich, R-Gainesville, the former Alachua County sheriff who was elected to the Senate in 2006.
Democrats say they have more registered voters in the district -- which covers all of Alachua, Gilchrist, Union and Bradford counties, and part of Columbia, Levy, Marion, and Putnam counties in North Central Florida -- and are bullish about their chances to take the seat despite the national resurgence of Republicans.
This by and large is a Democratic seat, and is the most winnable one out there, said Jason Roth, McGriffs campaign manager.
With 14 seats in the Senate and a slim hold on one-third of that chamber (a vital threshold to being able to obstruct some Republican legislation), Democrats see District 14 as the key to holding what they have.
I think that is important to the people of Florida because you got to have a dialogue. If you dont have a dialogue, you get bad laws. There needs to be a check and balance, McGriff said.
Consequently, Democrats are putting a lot of money in the campaign. McGriff has raised more than $214,000 -- more than $30,000 of which is from the Florida Democratic Party -- and loaned his campaign $100,000. McGriff also has plenty of cash on hand, havingspent only $23,000 by the end of September, leaving a veritable war chest for the final month of the campaign.
Oelrich has raised a similar amount, about $308,000, but has also spent more than $130,000, and has comparatively less weapons at his disposal in the final weeks of the campaign.
But Oelrich is hoping to tap into voter anger with the national Democrats by tying McGriff with their agenda, as well as relying on his experience to carry him over the top.
Thats very much on the forefront of the Republican Party in the state, tying Democrats to Obama and all that. I feel like my record as sheriff and four years as a senator stands on its own, Oelrich said.
Its unclear how much the national mood will affect the tight local election, but Roth is convinced District 14 voters will not be swayed by the vagaries of politics at the federal level.
Certainly the national mood is not working for the Democrats right now. (But) this district is probably more local than other districts, Roth said.
McGriff is hoping to deflect criticism of his party in Washington by promoting a similar message of Republican ineptness in Tallahassee.
Steve Oelrich and his Tallahassee backers in the Republican Party, theyll say anything to keep this seat, McGriff said.
Antipathy toward Washington, however, is more pervasive than frustration with Tallahassee.
I dont think theres a parallel there. We have to have a balanced budget in Florida. I dont think its nearly as partisan as they make it out to be, Oelrich said of comparisons to the political morass in Washington to Tallahassee.
In order to take the seat, McGriff is going to have to rely on the district's slight edge in Democratic voters, but with polls showing Republican enthusiasm for the midterm elections vastly outpaces that of the Democrats, this seat is likely to go down to the wire.
If new technologies and social networking are really such big players in campaigns, though, the edge has got to go to McGriff. While his campaign website may not be anything special, Oelrichs website is not exactly interactive.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
