Republican David Rivera may live in a swirling black hole of legal problems and corruption allegations, but political analysts who know him and his South Florida district are raising a yellow flag: Don't count the freshman congressman out.
Rivera, 48, considered the incumbent in the newly redrawn CD 26, is up against party-line Democrat Joe Garcia -- a candidate he beat handily in 2010.
But less than four weeks from the general election, Rivera -- a former state representative -- is losing his bid for re-election.
Two polls conducted at the beginning of the month -- one Democrat, one Republican;- one conducted by prestigious McLaughlin & Associates -- have the 50-year-old Democrat winning by a 9- and 10-point margin respectively.
Republican insiders nevertheless say that Rivera -- a tough campaigner who is one of the best on the Hill in constituent services -- wont be easy for Garcia to beat, no matter what the polls say. Nor has the National Republican Congressional Committee, which hasn't reserved any more money for him, written Rivera off entirely.
Nat Sillin, an NRCC spokesman, told reporters this week, We dont base our decisions on one poll alone and were closely watching this race.
Jorge Mari, a former Rivera campaign adviser, told Sunshine State News, "David has two major problems to overcome to win this race. They are unfavorable demographics and himself."
Mari said he believes the Miami congressman is attracted to controversy. He referred to a string of questionable business and ethics practices either under investigation or under a microscope now, during the campaign, the worst possible time for a candidate to find himself whipping up negative publicity.
"They're giving Garcia a field day," Mari said. "All his ads are out to paint David as a monster."
Among those alleged questionable and/or illegal practices are these: funneling campaign cash through his mother's consulting business, crashing his car into a postal vehicle carrying his opponent's campaign mailers, failing to report income from a consulting firm connected to his family, using campaign funds to pay personal expenses and reward companies connected to his family and friends.
As for demographics, new CD 26 runs from the Keys north to Kendall in Miami-Dade County, and unlike CD 25, has a larger constituency of Democrats and independents.The prevailing wisdom is that CD 26 is highly unpredictable -- especially Monroe County -- and that north of Marathon the GOP should be in control, while the liberal stronghold lies to the south.
David Rivera has better ground-game machinery than Garcia, said Marti. That's not surprising because Garcia has never won an election, not when he ran for county commission andnot when he ran for Congress previously.
A Miami political consultant speaking on background said, "Rivera needs to make it all about Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. He needs to pound away not on Joe Garcia but on Democrat policies, on how they've stalled the economy and sunk us in debt. He can still turn it around with that. He can turn it around by stressing Thursday's big unemployment numbers. He can win if Mitt Romney keeps getting stronger, keeps converting Hispanic voters to his side.
"The coattails effect will be massive in this race," he said.
Mari said another factor in the race is the personality of each candidate.
"There's no way to candy-coat it," he said. "Joe Garcia isn't as easy to like as David Rivera. He's bombastic, rude ... he's a name-caller. There's a reason why Joe keeps losing elections."
Mari predicted that in the end CD 26 would tighten up. "I know some of David's decisions have come home to haunt him, and he's not going to run away with it like he did last time. But in spite of the political baggage, he's got a fighting chance.
"Right now Garcia has more money. I know they're saying the GOP donors have backed off from Rivera, but don't underestimate the guy. He is one prodigious fundraiser. He'll raise the money he needs to make a statement at the end.
"And Garcia, who has made the race all about Rivera, not about fiscal policy, may wind up like the emperor with no clothes."
Meanwhile, though, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1.5 million worth of TV ad time. It would surprise no one if some of that money went to muscle up Garcia's last-minute bag of tricks.
Neither Rivera's nor Garcia's campaign team returned Sunshine State News' phone calls on Thursday.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0895.
