Dan Webster is looking like he will be heading northwest in the aftermath of the latest round of congressional redistricting.
Political circles across Florida are buzzing that Webster intends to leave CD 10 to target CD 11 which is currently represented by Rich Nugent who has announced that he will not run for a fourth therm in 2016.
Democrats almost knocked off Webster in 2012 and their chances improve considerably under the new map. Webster represents parts of Orange and Polk counties and most of Lake County. Under the new map, this district would be far more Democratic, taking in only parts of Orange County.
Webster has been vocal in his opposition to redistricting but his chances for another term look dire if he stays here. Half of the district are Hispanic and African Americans and Barack Obama took more than 61 percent of the vote here in 2012. Democrats far outnumber Republicans here, making up 46 percent of registered voters while the GOP claims only 28 percent of them.
This is a prime pick up opportunity for Democrats and they’re already lining up against Webster. Val Demings, who almost beat Webster in 2012, is back for another run. So is Geri Thompson who has been always been strong in Orange County. Bob Poe, who used to chair the Florida Democrats, and attorney Fatima Fahmy are also in the mix. Gary Siplin could also run and there’s always the chance that Corrine Brown would jettison her northern base to run here as she evaluates the new maps.
Things look more promising for Webster in CD 11. Starting in Ocala and sprawling over to the Gulf Coast, this district winds through Citrus, Hernando, Marion and Sumter counties. Under the new map, the district keeps all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties as well as part of Marion County while adding almost half of the population of Lake County.
Republicans do better here than in CD 10. Back in 2012, they made up 44 percent of registered voters here while 34 percent were Democrats and that edge should not have withered away since then.
In the early stages of the race, Justin Grabelle, who was Nugent’s chief of staff, is running for the Republican nod and he has his old boss’ support. But he doesn’t have a clear shot as rancher Kelly Rice and Jack Martin, a businessman and pastor, are also running in the Republican primary. Webster does have some old ties to this district so he’s not a total unknown here by any means.
Dave Koller is trying again to flip this seat for the Democrats but he did not come close to beating Nugent last time out. Nancy Argenziano could be in the mix for Democrats after leaving the GOP. Matt Schnackenberg is running as a Libertarian.
Webster might not get much support from the GOP establishment in Washington, D.C. to be sure after he challenged John Boehner and Paul Ryan last year. But CD 11 looks more palatable for his political ambitions than his current seat. Expect the buzz to grow louder that Webster will switch seats and head for far more friendlier territory.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
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