Two new polls taken during the first week of June show that independent Gov. Charlie Crist is engaged in a close battle with Republican former House Speaker Marco Rubio for the U.S. Senate seat once held by Mel Martinez. Either of the two leading Democratic candidates place a distant third, according to the polls.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll taken June 7 and released Wednesday had Rubio and Crist tied with 37 percent of the vote, while Democratic hopeful Kendrick Meek trails with 15 percent.
But another poll also released Wednesday showed Crist slightly ahead but within the margin of error.
Charlie Crist leads Marco Rubio by a nose in the Senate race, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The poll from Quinnipiac shows Crist carrying 37 percent support compared to Rubio's 33 percent, and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek the leading Democratic candidate in the race, trailing at 17 percent. In the last Quinnipiac poll, released April 15, Crist was at 32 percent, Rubio at 30 percent and Meek at 24 percent.
Crists lead in the Quinnipiac poll is even wider when Jeff Greene, a billionaire investor, is listed as the Democratic nominee. The governor takes 40 percent with Rubio at 33 percent and Greene at 14 percent.
This is confirmed in the Rasmussen Reports poll, which has Crist at 41 percent, Rubio at 37 percent and Greene at 13 percent.
Crist, who left the GOP at the end of April to continue his Senate campaign with no party affiliation, is drawing heavily from independents and Democrats. Besides being backed by 51 percent of independents in the Quinnipiac poll, Crist takes 37 percent of Democrats as opposed to 44 percent who stay with Meek. Still retaining the support of 51 percent of independents in the poll, Crist has the backing of 46 percent of Democrats as opposed to the 35 percent backing Greene.
Obviously, there is a long time until November, but the Governor is doing very well among independent voters, almost as well among Democrats as Meek, and better among Democrats than Greene, said Brown. With Rubio getting two-third of the Republican vote, the fate of Gov. Crist, who switched from a Republican to independent six weeks ago, depends heavily on his ability to appeal to Democratic voters.
Crist remains strong in the Quinnipiac poll with 52 percent of voters, including 59 percent of independents and 54 percent of Democrats, seeing him favorably as opposed to 33 percent who see him unfavorably. Crist actually breaks even with Republicans, with both his favorable and unfavorable numbers at 44 percent.
Crist also gets high marks in the Quinnipiac poll for his performance as governor with 57 percent approval, including the backing of 62 percent of independents, 61 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans. These numbers, recorded in the midst of the Gulf oil disaster, are the highest for Crists job performance since October 2009.
Rubios approval numbers may have reached a plateau, but his disapproval numbers are starting to rise in the Quinnipiac poll. Rubio is seen favorably by 36 percent of Floridians, while 28 percent view him unfavorably. The same poll had Rubios favorable numbers at 32 percent in January 2010 and 36 percent in April. In the meantime, the number of Floridians who see the Republican in an unfavorable light is growing, according to Quinnipiac. That number stood at 14 percent in January and 22 percent in April.
According to the Quinnipiac poll, Meek remains unknown to most voters in Florida with 69 percent having no opinion formed on him. He is viewed favorably by 17 percent of voters, while 13 percent of them view him unfavorably. Meek is even unknown to his own party -- 59 percent of Democrats do not have an opinion of him.
The other Democrats in the race are also unknown. While Greene is seen favorably by 11 percent of the voters -- with the same percentage seeing him unfavorably, 77 percent of Floridians do not know enough about him to hold an opinion. Despite his four decades of service in Florida, the same is true of former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre. Eighty-four percent of Floridians didn't know enough about Ferre to hold an opinion, while 8 percent saw him in a favorable light and 6 percent unfavorable.
Crists candidacy still benefits from a substantial name recognition advantage, said Brown. Since Crists chance of victory depends on a substantial showing among Democrats, the question is whether hell retain his current share among them once the eventual Democratic nominee becomes better known.
The Quinnipiac poll confirms what other polls have shown -- that Meek cant win, said Paul Blank, spokesman for the Greene campaign. Blank added that the poll shows Greene has become very competitive since entering the race in late April.
The Rasmussen Reports poll surveyed 500 Florida voters. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percent. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,133 Floridians and the poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
