As the Florida gubernatorial contest enters its final days, Quinnipiac University released a new poll on Thursday morning showing the race remains close. The poll of likely voters shows Democratic challenger former Gov. Charlie Crist with a slight lead over Gov. Rick Scott as independents break the deadlock.
Crist takes 43 percent in the new poll while Scott stands at 40 percent, Libertarian Adrian Wyllie takes 8 percent and 9 percent remain undecided. When Wyllie is taken out of the mix, Crists lead remains unchanged, 45 percent to 42 percent. Last week, a Quinnipiac poll showed the race dead even with Scott and Crist mustering 42 percent each.
The poll shows both candidates have nailed down their respective bases, with Scott claiming 81 percent of Republicans and Crist reeling in 83 percent of Democrats. But independents break Crists way big time in the poll, with 47 percent backing him, 29 percent behind Scott and 16 percent for Wyllie -- a noticeable jump for the Democrat who was ahead by 3 percent with these voters in last weeks Q-poll. One major caveat: the poll relies on 36 percent of likely voters to be independents or from minor parties, far higher than what is expected.
"Independent voters are often the difference in swing states like Florida, but the size of former Gov. Charlie Crist's lead among them is truly remarkable," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll on Thursday. "Crist, who always has sought to portray himself as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue, seems to have sold that message to independents who historically have favored problem-solvers who are less political. It may turn out that Crist's change from Republican to independent to Democrat branded him as the kind of less political politician with the most important voter group. If Crist can win independents by 20 points on Election Day, he will be difficult to beat.
Brown said voters could have been swayed by the debates held between Scott and Crist, including the one at Broward College where Crist used a fan despite violating debate rules and came on stage while Scott remained waiting in the wings.
"It would be a reasonable hypothesis that the candidates' debates made a big difference in this race," Brown said. Scott was ahead going into them and behind after them. It could be a coincidence, but it would be a pretty large coincidence. Crist has long been thought of as an excellent campaigner and he used those skills to his advantage.
Brown noted 90 percent of voters know who they will back but 10 percent of voters could change their minds. This includes 92 percent of Scott supporters, 91 percent of Crist backers but only 67 percent of Wyllie voters. Brown noted if the Libertarian starts losing voters, the race could be majorly impacted.
"Wyllie is holding on to his 8 percent and if those voters decide to leave him for a major party candidate they could also make a difference, Brown said.
There is a gender gap with Scott leading with male voters. Almost half -- 47 percent -- of men go for Scott while 37 percent back Crist and 9 percent support Wyllie. Crist gets 49 percent of women while 35 percent are for Scott and 6 percent prefer Wyllie.
Crist is treading water in the poll with 45 percent seeing him as favorable and the same percentage viewing him as unfavorable. Scott is upside down in the poll with 46 percent viewing him as unfavorable while 41 percent see him as favorable. Wyllie remains largely unknown with 81 percent not sure about him while 10 percent view him as favorable and 5 percent see him in an unfavorable light.
Almost half of independent voters -- 49 percent -- see Crist favorably though 44 percent view him as unfavorable. Scott is doing much worse with these voters, with 56 percent seeing him as unfavorable but 36 percent seeing him favorably.
The poll of 817 likely voters was taken from Oct. 22-27 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
