When Gov. Charlie Crist signed the Transparency in Private Attorney Contracting Act on Wednesday, it might have been the last time Floridians see him in the glowing company of Republican Party leaders.
Flanked by Attorney General Bill McCollum and Republican Party of Florida Chairman John Thrasher, Crist signed the bill that caps state contingency-fee contracts with private law firms.
While there were handshakes all around Wednesday, political insiders say the knives are coming out.
The first indication will be what Crist does with Senate Bill 6, the education-reform measure also authored by Thrasher. If the governor vetoes the bill -- he has to act by Friday or it becomes law without his signature -- his move will be seen as a slap in the face of state GOP leaders who withstood an onslaught of opposition from the state's teacher unions.
House Speaker Larry Cretul, R-Ocala, threw down the gauntlet earlier this month. Citing Crist's initial support for the bill, Cretul said he expected the governor to sign off. "I take the governor at his word," Cretul declared.
But Crist's signature is no sure bet as the governor has expressed growing, albeit unspecified, concerns about the reform measure in recent days.
And it's not just about education. Last week, Crist crossed GOP lawmakers when he promised a gathering of Florida Realtors that he would veto any bill that increased property insurance rates in the state.
Crist's threatened veto invites a head-on collision as the Senate General Government Appropriations Committee on Tuesday approved measures by Sen. Mike Bennett, R-Bradenton, and Garrett Richter, R-Naples, to allow certain insurers to raise residential premiums by as much 10 percent while limiting upfront payouts.
How Crist handles SB 6 this week could be a strong predictor of what the governor does April 30, when he would have to declare if he will pursue his bid for U.S. Senate bid as an independent candidate.
The legislative jousting comes as Crist lags far behind former House Speaker Marco Rubio in his bid to become Florida's next senator. The governor's 20-point deficit in recent polls and diminished fundraising have fueled persistent speculation that he will run with no party affiliation this fall.
Crist and his campaign staff have repeatedly rejected that scenario, but campaign manager Eric Eikenberg appeared to leave the door open in a Wall Street Journal article published Wednesday.
The story quoted Eikenberg as saying Crist would "qualify for office," though he "declined to affirm he would qualify for the ballot as a GOP candidate."
"Pressed on the matter, Mr. Eikenberg said: 'I'm not going to respond to Marco Rubio campaign-driven rhetoric about Charlie Crist.'"
Eikenberg did not return Sunshine State News' phone call and e-mail seeking comment.
The Journal piece also quoted GOP strategist Mike Murphy, a Rubio supporter, as worrying that an independent Crist candidacy could hurt Republican chances.
"Whatever label you're putting on it, when you have two Republicans running against one Democrat in a swing state, it's not generally good for the Republicans," Murphy said.
Others downplay the independent effect.
"You might have made that argument in 2006 or 2008, but not in 2010," said one political operative, speaking on background. "Florida is pretty damn red this year. Voters have come home."
According to this Tallahassee-based insider, who has worked on GOP campaigns in 30 states, Crist's efforts to "turn up the populist dial" will produce nothing but political blowback.
"His threat to veto SB 6 is cataclysmic for (Republican lawmakers) who have put their careers and reputation on the line," he said.
A focus group conducted 12 days ago in Orlando provided more discouraging news for Crist.
After the campaign showed its latest television ad linking Rubio to ex-House Speaker Ray Sansom, the viewers' first questions, according to an individual who was present, were "Who's Ray Sansom and why are you lying about Marco Rubio?"
A few pundits, including Erick Erickson at RedState.com, have suggested that Crist will employ the "nuclear option" of just scrapping the 2010 campaign and rebooting for a comeback in two years.
Suspending the campaign could let Crist keep his cash in a federal account and live to fight another day. Declaring as an independent, Crist would allow his donors to reclaim their contributions.
In any event, Crist and the state Republican Party appear to be on very different pages these days.
Incensing GOP leaders, Crist last week vetoed a campaign-finance bill that was a party priority.
Senate President-designate Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, blasted his party's putative leader in an unusually blunt statement:
"Politically, it is understandable that this legislation is problematic for the governor. But what is indefensible is that Gov. Crist failed to even read the bill.His uninformed veto comments did not reflect the stringent details of the bill, rather, it parroted the talking points of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink."
Undaunted, Crist has publicly mulled the possibility of calling a special session on political "corruption" -- a not-so-veiled shot at Republican officials dogged by reports of promiscuous use of party credit cards.
The problem with playing the populist card is that Crist's appointee, Jim Greer, chaired the RPOF. The disgraced party boss is now the center of a state investigation.
But just as his protege Greer is suing the party for failing to deliver a golden parachute, Crist's actions appear increasingly antagonistic toward the RPOF -- whatever the political consequences may be.
"It's like he's trying to burn down the entire system to save himself," said a veteran party consultant who noted that's no way to win a closed party primary.
Writing in the Southern Political Report on Wednesday, Gary Reese opined, "Crist has become so transparent in his self-serving governance that more and more Floridians are catching on to. Theres saying in Tallahassee thats become a commonplace: 'Charlie is all about Charlie.'
"The education bill controversy rips another hole in the Good Ship Charlie, and right when he can least afford it. Thats because it shines a bright light on his political nakedness. In short, the man has no core convictions. Period."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.