Will Ron Paul bail on the Republican Party again?
Currently making his second bid for the Republican presidential nomination, the Texas Republican has been engaged in third-party politics before -- as the Libertarian Partys presidential nominee in 1988 and commending, to various degrees, three minor candidates in the 2008 general election: independent Ralph Nader, Green Party nominee former U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney of Georgia and Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin.
While Paul, who retains one of the most loyal bases of supporters in American politics, has denied interest in making another third-party run in 2012, the door remains slightly open for, once again, leaving the GOP.
Earlier this week, Alexander Burns over at Politico examined recent media appearances by Paul and noted that the congressman from the Lone Star State repeatedly insists he has no intention of making a third-party run.
If Paul really has absolutely no interest in running outside the GOP, a shorter answer would be no. But he keeps going back to no intention, a famously nonbinding construction, wrote Burns.
While he is doing better at this stage in the game than he was back in the 2008 election cycle, Paul remains -- at best -- in the second tier of Republican hopefuls alongside Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Paul continues to draw heavy fire from Republican leaders and the conservative establishment. For example, conservative leader Gary Bauer, best known for leading the Family Research Council and running for the Republican presidential nomination and now leading the Campaign for Working Families PAC, slammed Paul in an email to supporters sent out on Tuesday.
When it comes to foreign policy, Ron Paul's views are most often defined as isolationism. But I am convinced Paul at heart is a pacifist, Bauer wrote. His foreign-policy views are dangerously nae and, in my opinion, disqualify him from consideration to be our next commander in chief. Every time he opens his mouth, he sounds like appeaser Neville Chamberlain or the radicals at Code Pink.
Bauer pointed to an interview Paul did with Fox News in which the Texas congressman downplayed the threat Iran poses.
Seriously, Ron? asked Bauer. Iran is not a threat to us or anyone in the region? Ever heard of Hezbollah? What about the multitude of reports indicating that the IEDs blowing up our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have been coming out of Iran?
Paul thinks we can join hands with the mullahs, sing 'Kumbaya' and all will be well, continued Bauer. Obama has tried the kid gloves approach with Iran, and this week's expected IAEA reports will speak volumes about his success. The world remains a dangerous place, and America desperately needs a leader who has the will to defend freedom from tyranny here and abroad.
Bauer ended with a jab at Pauls appeals to religious conservatives.
Paul said last week that he opposed the resolution reaffirming In God We Trust as our national motto, noted Bauer.
While the Republican leadership continues to pound away at Paul, the Texas congressman is doing better in straw polls this time around. For example, Paul scored a big win in the 2012 Illinois Republican Pre-Presidential Straw Poll which closed on Saturday. The event, which was open to Illinois voters who paid $5 to the state GOP, drew almost 3,650 voters online and in person. Balloting was open for a week.
Paul routed the field, taking 52 percent of the vote. Businessman Herman Cain took second with 18 percent and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts took third with 14 percent. Gingrich took fourth with 9 percent. The rest of the field followed with none of them breaking 3 percent.
This straw poll victory demonstrates the groundswell of support for Ron Paul and his winning message, as well as the organizational muscle presidential candidates require, Scott Davis, Pauls chairman in the Land of Lincoln, said in a statement. Straw poll participants were Illinois residents who support the Illinois Republican Party and Ron Paul for the presidency, so this contest is relevant and representative.
But theres the rub. Davis noted that Pauls supporters were Illinois residents who support the Illinois Republican Party and Ron Paul for the presidency which is not the same thing as registered Republicans who will vote in the primary. Some of Pauls supporters draw from the Democratic and Libertarian parties as well as the independent ranks -- many of whom cannot vote for Paul in the primary and caucus process.
Paul and his team continue to downplay the chance that he will bolt the Republicans -- yet again -- and his son, rising GOP star U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, could be undermined if the Texas congressman jumps ship. But Ron Paul has shown a tendency to put his principles ahead of political calculations before -- its one of the chief reasons of why he has one of the most passionate followings in American politics.
Two candidates who bolted the GOP to make third party runs back in 2000 -- Pat Buchanan and then-U.S. Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire -- flopped badly. Paul has enough of a passionate base to make more of an impact if he chooses to head back to the Libertarians in 2012. Unless the Texas congressman completely slams the door on jumping ship on the Republicans, look for speculation on Pauls intentions to continue until the first week of May when the Libertarians meet for their convention in Las Vegas.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
