Brown has been the beneficiary of gerrymandering for years, going as far back to when she was first elected to Congress in 1992. Republicans in Tallahassee have been more than happy to herd North Florida Democrats and African-Americans into her district, leaving other congressional seats in the area safe in GOP hands. Brown has scratched the Republicans back in return. Back in 2010, Brown was the leading Democrat opponent to the Fair District amendments.
But with a Leon County judge ruling last month that the current congressional districts are invalid, Brown is left in a tight spot. Even worse for her, Judge Terry Lewis ruled Brown's district and Dan Websters to be unconstitutional. Lewis ordered the Legislature to draw up new districts by Aug. 15 and a special session begins on Thursday.
Unlike Webster, Brown has been very vocal in her opposition to Lewis ruling, claiming it will lead to less minority representation. But Brown may not have too much to fear in Tallahassee. Much of the heavy lifting on redistricting in the upcoming special session will be handled in committee. Brown has to like her chances in both the Senate and House committees since fellow African-American Democrats from Jacksonville, Audrey Gibson and Reggie Fullwood, are on board.
Republicans will also look to keep Browns district largely intact as they seek to protect the seats currently held by the likes of Webster, John Mica, Ted Yoho, Ander Crenshaw and Ron DeSantis. Rob Bradley and Travis Cummings both represent the conservative stronghold of Clay County and they will try to keep Browns district as east as possible. Republican leadership also will play a large role in the redistricting committee with Richard Corcoran chairing the House committee and Jose Olivia, another future speaker waiting in the wings, serving on it.
Based on the committee makeup, Brown can expect to find the core of her district left intact even if it does lead to problems for the Legislature with Lewis down the road. Browns high-profile opposition to Lewis and further redistricting attempts gives the Republicans more reason to help her out, even as they try to protect their own congressmen. Dont expect Browns district to be altered that much when all is said and done with the special session.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
