After helping him win the South Carolina primary on Saturday, conservatives have propelled former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich ahead of former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts to lead the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a national poll of likely primary voters released Tuesday by Rasmussen Reports.
Gingrich leads with 35 percent with Romney in second place with 28 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania stands in third with 16 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas takes fourth with 10 percent. Nine percent remain undecided, while 2 percent are backing other candidates in the race.
A Rasmussen poll taken last week -- before Gingrichs win in South Carolina -- had Romney ahead with 30 percent. Gingrich stood in second with 27 percent, followed by Santorum at 15 percent and Paul with 13 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has since withdrawn from the race and endorsed Gingrich, garnered 4 percent in that poll.
While Gingrich has been the beneficiary of conservative candidates getting out of the race, 50 percent of those surveyed by Rasmussen say they could change their minds while 41 percent insist that they are fully committed to their candidate.
According to the poll, Gingrich has done a solid job in appealing to conservatives. He leads among Republicans who identify themselves as very conservative with 49 percent, followed by Santorum at 21 percent, Romney at 16 percent and Paul at 7 percent. A majority of tea party supporters -- 52 percent -- back Gingrich, followed by Santorum with 20 percent and Romney with 16 percent. Gingrich also leads with evangelical Republicans with 43 percent, with Santorum taking 19 percent and Romney at 17 percent. Romney does better among Republicans who call themselves somewhat conservative, edging Gingrich 33 percent to 32 percent.
Gingrich is now seen by more Republicans as a better candidate in the general election than Romney. Thirty-nine percent think Gingrich would do better in November, while 37 percent think Romney would do better against Democrat incumbent President Barack Obama. The Rasmussen poll taken last week had 43 percent thinking Romney would be the best candidate in November, while 29 percent said that about Gingrich.
In last weeks Rasmussen poll, a clear majority of those surveyed -- 70 percent -- thought Romney would get the nomination and only 13 percent said Gingrich would be the nominee. In the new poll, a bare majority -- 51 percent -- think Romney will emerge with the nomination, while 32 percent think Gingrich will be the nominee.
Gingrich has closed the gap on Romney in who Republicans think could best manage the economy. Thirty-five percent think Romney would do a better job while 32 percent think Gingrich would. A majority -- 51 percent -- think Gingrich would do better on national security issues, while only 18 percent say Romney would do a better job. Twenty-eight percent say Gingrich would be better on social issues, while 25 percent think Santorum and 23 percent think Romney would do better on that front.
The poll of 1,000 likely Republican primary voters was taken on Jan. 23 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
