A poll byQuinnipiac University released Thursday morning shows that U.S. Rep. Connie Mack holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate and holds a slight edge over Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson in a possible general election match-up.
"Although some activists have been critical of Congressman Connie Mack and his campaign, he retains an overwhelming lead in the race for the Republican Senate nomination and is tied with Senator Bill Nelson," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Thursday.
Mack takes 42 percent in the poll of registered voters with Nelson right behind him at 41 percent. In a Quinnipiac poll taken at the end of March, Nelson led 44 percent while Mack followed with 36 percent.
The new poll shows that Nelson does much better against former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux who is also running for the Republican nomination. Nelson takes 43 percent while LeMieux garners 36 percent in that scenario.
While 41 percent of Republicans remain undecided, Mack has a clear lead in the primary with 40 percent. Retired Army officer and businessman Mike McCalister follows with 8 percent while LeMieux takes 7 percent. Former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon, who announced on Friday that he would run in the Republican primary, was not included in the poll.
"It is not clear how the late entrance of former Congressman Dave Weldon into the race will affect the campaign, but Mack's lead is pretty formidable with three months until the primary,Brown said.
The poll shows Mack remains unknown to many voters with 50 percent of those surveyed saying they have not heard enough about the congressman to have an opinion of him. Still, Mack is in solid shape with those who are familiar with him, with 32 percent seeing him in a favorable light while 16 percent view him as unfavorable. The poll shows that Mack is in excellent shape with Republicans, with 56 percent seeing him as favorable and only 6 percent as unfavorable.
The poll shows that LeMieux remains mostly unknown to Florida voters despite his 16-month tenure in the U.S. Senate, with 75 percent of those surveyed saying they do not know enough about him to hold an opinion while 13 percent see him as favorable and 11 percent as unfavorable. More than two-thirds of Republicans surveyed -- 68 percent -- say they do not know enough about LeMieux to have an opinion while 26 percent see him as favorable and 5 percent as unfavorable.
Despite his four decades in Florida politics, 31 percent of those surveyed do not know enough to hold an opinion on Nelson, while 39 percent see him as favorable and 28 percent as unfavorable. In a Q-poll taken in January, Nelson stood in better shape with Florida voters as 41 percent viewed him as favorable at that time and 23 percent saw him as unfavorable. When asked about Nelsons performance in the Senate, 44 percent of those surveyed said they approved of it while 35 percent did not.
The poll of 1,722 registered Florida voters was taken from May 15-21 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent. This includes a sample of 742 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850)727-0859.
