As the 2014 election cycle draws closer, Florida can expect, once again, to be one of the nations top political battlegrounds.
National pundit Larry Sabato offered his Crystal Ball look at 2014s congressional races on Thursday. Sabato believes that six of the states 27 congressional districts will have competitive races come 2014.
Sabato believes that freshman U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., is in a tossup election in 2014. Staying in South Florida, Sabato believes Republicans also have the opportunity to pick up the congressional seat currently held by U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, the freshman Democrat who has been drawing fire in recent days after his chief of staff resigned when his name was brought up in a voter fraud case. According to Sabato, Garcia starts off as a slight favorite in a race that Leans Democratic.
Looking at seats currently held by Republicans, Sabato thought Democrats could take four seats in Florida. Noting that Gwen Graham could be a formidable candidate for Democrats, Sabato has U.S. Rep. Steve Southerland, R-Fla., a slight favorite in a race that Leans Republican. Sabato shifted that race from Likely Republican to the current category.
Democrats are excited by the candidacy of lawyer Gwen Graham, daughter of former Sen./Gov. Bob Graham (D-Fla.), against Rep. Steve Southerland in a Panhandle district, Sabato wrote. The area might be a little too conservative for Democrats these days, but Graham should be able to run a good race against Southerland.
Sabato gives Democrats less of a chance against U.S. Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla., and U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla. Both of those races were classified by Sabato as Likely Republican. Sabato noted that Young, the longest serving Republican in the House, could retire come 2014.
As Sabato noted, Murphy ranks as one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the nation. A crowd of Republicans is already lining up to challenge Murphy in 2014. Juno Beach City Commissioner Ellen Andel has already jumped in the race for the Republican nomination. So has former Connecticut state Rep. Alan Schlesinger who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006 against Joe Lieberman. Former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, who lost a congressional race last year, is also looking at entering the Republican field. So are former state Rep. Carl Domino and current state Rep. Gayle Harrell. St. Lucie County Tod Mowrey,former Tequesta City Councilman Calvin Turnquest and businessman Gary Uber are also looking at entering the Republican primary.
Another crowd of Republicans is looking at challenging Garcia. Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall and former Miami-Dade County Commission Chair Joe Martinez are already running as Republicans. Miami-Dade School Board member Carlos Curbelo has already launched an exploratory committee to run as a Republican while Rep. Jose Felix Diaz, R-Miami, is also considering entering.
Sabato rightfully noted that Democrats have high hopes for Gwen Graham but he did not mention she could have a tough primary. Former state Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson, who ran against Southerland in 2012, has said he is considering another congressional run. This could complicate things but the Democratic leadership seems to be breaking Grahams way.
While Young is in his early 80s, despite Sabatos suggestion, the congressman is showing no signs of slowing down. Attorney Jessica Ehrlich is angling for a rematch but Young defeated her by 15 percent in 2012. Even with Barack Obamas and Bill Nelsons coattails, she could not come close to beating Young. If Young does retire, Democrats might have a chance here but Young appears, for the moment, to be a solid favorite.
Webster faced a tough challenge from Democrat Val Demings in 2012;he is already gearing up to 2014. While Democrats want Demings to try again, she hasnt committed to running again. Central Florida is trending more Democratic but Webster should be a favorite here.
Democrats looked to defeat Buchanan and recruited former state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald against him in 2012. But Buchanan held on to win by 7 percent. Whoever the Democrats nominate to challenge Buchanan in 2014 wont have the benefit of having voters come out for Obama. Buchanan starts here as the favorite.
Sabato considers the other races to be safe for the incumbents.
Tallahassee freelance political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
