The Florida Supreme Court ruled on a 5-2 decision on Wednesday to use the League of Women Voters’ (LWV) proposed map for congressional redistricting.
While many of the current incumbents look safe, under the court approved map, Democrats have three prime opportunities to pick up seats currently held by Republicans. The GOP has an excellent chance under the new map to pick off a Democrat in North Florida and Republicans can also flip a seat in a swing district.
Here’s a quick look at how the decision impacts the 27 congressional districts across Florida:
CD 1: Currently held by U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller, R-Fla., this Panhandle district currently covers all of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties and parts of Holmes, Okaloosa and Walton counties. Ranked as one of the most Republican districts in the nation, CD 1, under the court approved map, would include all of Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walton counties and most of the population of Holmes County. The GOP will have no problem keeping this seat.
CD 2: The seat currently held by U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, D-Fla. is set for some major changes under the decision. The district sprawls across the Big Bend taking in all of Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Taylor, Wakulla and Washington counties and parts of Holmes and Madison counties. Under the new map, CD 2 would bring in all of Bay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Jackson, Lafayette, Levy, Liberty, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, and Washington counties, less than half of the population of Leon County, most of Columbia County and fractions of the populations of Marion and Jefferson counties. This seat becomes harder for a Democrat to keep, especially with Leon County divided. With two major Republican challengers already gunning for her, Graham will have a tough time keeping this seat in 2016.
CD 3: U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho, R-Fla., will be facing a less rural district if the base map holds. Yoho currently represents all of Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Levy, Suwannee, and Union counties, along with most of Alachua and Clay counties, part of Madison County and a slice of Marion County. Under the new map, this district would pull all of Alachua, Bradford, Clay, Putnam and Union counties while keeping a part of Marion County. Democrats will have better chances here, especially with Alachua County -- more blue due to the University of Florida’s population -- united here. But Yoho’s chief problem might be in the Republican primary since he did well in many of the small, rural counties he is now losing. Regardless, the GOP should be able to keep this seat.
CD 4: U.S. Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R-Fla., currently represents all of Baker and Nassau counties and parts of Duval County in Congress. Under the new map, Crenshaw keeps Nassau County while losing Baker County and represents more than half the population of Duval County, keeping most of his Jacksonville base. But CD 4 now goes further south, taking in most of St. Johns County which had been represented by U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla. This district remains reliably Republican.
CD 5: This district, currently represented in Washington, D.C., by U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Fla., will drastically change even as she continues to fight redistricting at the federal level. Brown’s district currently winds through North Florida to the central part of the state, taking in parts of Alachua, Clay, Duval, Lake, Marion, Orange, Putnam, Seminole and Volusia counties, making it a very secure seat for Democrats. But the seat is far less secure under the court approved map, heading west from Brown’s Jacksonville base, taking in all of Baker, Gadsden, Hamilton and Madison counties, most of Jefferson and Leon counties and almost half of Duval County. This is now a more competitive seat but Democrats still have the edge here. This could set up a showdown between Brown and other Democrats. Former Florida Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson, who ran for Congress in 2010 and 2012 and is based out of Tallahassee, could be looking at another congressional bid. So is Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillium.
CD 6: This seat currently stretches from the Jacksonville suburbs down to Daytona Beach. DeSantis is not running for a third term and the district loses his base, the northern part of St. Johns County, under the map approved by the Florida Supreme Court. All of Flagler and Volusia counties and parts of Lake and St. Johns counties would be included here under the court approved map. Even as the race for the open seat has been somewhat upended by former U.S. Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Fla., suspending her campaign for health reasons, the GOP should easily keep this seat come November.
CD 7: This suburban Orlando seat is currently held by U.S. Rep. John Mica, R-Fla. The court approved map brings in parts of Orange County but Mica’s Seminole Count hometurf, all of which is included, is the heart of the district. Mica has to like his chances to stay in Congress even as the seat does bring in more Democrats. In the meantime, the GOP has the edge here.
CD 8: U.S. Rep. Bill Posey, R-Fla., currently represents all of Brevard and Indian River counties and parts of Orange County. The new map keeps all of Brevard and Indian River counties and a small slice of Orange County. Posey has to be thrilled with how the court treated his district as the GOP should easily keep this seat.
CD 9: With U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Fla., running for the Senate, Democrats should be able to hold here under the new map, even as more Republicans are brought into this district. The district currently contains most of Osceola County along with smaller parts of Orange and Polk counties. The new map has all of Osceloa County here and keeps parts of Polk and Orange counties. The GOP should do better here but Democrats have the edge to hold on to this open seat come November.
CD 10: Democrats almost knocked off U.S. Rep. Dan Webster, R-Fla., in 2012 and their chances improve considerably under the new map. Webster represents parts of Orange and Polk counties and most of Lake County. Under the new map, this district would be far more Democratic, taking in only parts of Orange County. Webster has been vocal in his opposition to redistricting but his chances for another term look dire, especially as major Democratic candidates are already running here. This is a prime pick up opportunity for Democrats.
CD 11: Starting in Ocala and sprawling over to the Gulf Coast, this district winds through Citrus, Hernando, Marion and Sumter counties. Under the new map, the district keeps all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties as well as part of Marion County while adding almost half of the population of Lake County. U.S. Rep. Rich Nugent, R-Fla., has already announced he will not run in 2016 but whoever wins the Republican nomination will be in good shape under the map the court approved on Wednesday.
CD 12: U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Fla., will feel right at home under the new map. He gets to keep representing all of Pasco County and parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties in the Tampa Bay area. That's good news for the GOP which should be able to retain this seat without much difficulty.
CD 13: Democrats have to be thrilled with the new map even as U.S. Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla., is already running for the U.S. Senate. This Pinellas County seat, now including all of St. Petersburg, is far more Democratic under the new map. Former Gov. Charlie Crist and Eric Lynn, who worked at the Pentagon in the Obama administration, are already running for the Democratic nomination for this seat while retired Marines Gen. Mark Bircher just got in the race on the Republican side. Democrats have to like their chances to pick up this seat under the court approved map.
CD 14: U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., currently represents parts of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties in this secure Democratic district. Under the new map, she loses Pinellas County but this seat continues to lean Democratic. Castor should be fine under the court approved map.
CD 15: This district currently takes in the suburbs east of Tampa in Hillsborough and Polk counties. Under the court approved map, U.S. Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., would have a quarter of the voters based in Lake County added to the district. That should lead to no major changes in what is generally a secure district for Republicans. Ross should be secure here.
CD 16: Nestled south of Tampa Bay, this district takes in most of Manatee and Sarasota counties. Under the map approved by the state Supreme Court on Wednesday, most of Sarasota County and all of Manatee County would stay here while a fraction of Hillsborough County would be added to the district. U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., should be pleased with the base map despite the new addition. Certainly the GOP has a clear edge here.
CD 17: This large district, which sprawls across the southern half of the state, would see some nominal changes under the court approved map. Parts of Lee, Polk and Sarasota join all of Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands and Okeechobee counties in the proposal. U.S Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Fla., should have nothing to worry about under the court approved map and this looks like a safe district for the GOP.
CD 18: U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., is running for the Senate, leaving this swing seat open. The seat under the court approved map keeps all of Martin and St. Lucie counties and part of of Palm Beach County in it. Both the Democrats and Republicans can expect competitive primaries next year and, with the exception of taking down Graham in CD 2, this represents the GOP’s best chance to flip a seat in Florida.
CD 19: This Southwest Florida district, generally a citadel for the GOP, won’t see major changes under the map approved by the court on Wednesday. Almost half of Collier and most of Lee counties are included. That’s music to the ears of U.S. Rep. Curt Clawson, R-Fla., who shouldn’t have much difficulty keeping this seat in GOP control.
CD 20: The court decision offers some changes to this seat, currently held by U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla. Under the map, Hastings loses his share of Hendry County. Hastings would keep parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties under the court approved map. In any case, just like before the redistricting process started, this seat looks secure for the Democrats.
CD 21: U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Fla., has some company. Joining him in this Palm Beach County district is U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., as the maps shift after the court decision. But don’t worry about a primary. The two incumbents have already said they won’t run against each other and one will of them will scurry down south to CD 22. Whether it’s Deutch or Frankel, Democrats will have an easy time keeping this seat.
CD 22: No longer running side by side with Deutch’s district, this seat, under the court approved map, takes in the southern part of Palm Beach County and parts of Broward County. This will be a strong seat for Democrats regardless if Deutch or Frankel runs here.
CD 23: This South Florida district currently runs between the border of Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Under the court approved map, Broward would still outweigh Miami-Dade in this secure district for the Democrats. All of that is good news for U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., but any member of her party would start a heavy favorite over Republican candidates here.
CD 24: U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, D-Fla., represents part of Broward and Miami-Dade counties in Congress. The court approved map doesn’t particularly shake things up even as some of the boundaries with CD 23 and other districts are changed. Wilson remains a heavy favorite to keep this seat for the Democrats.
CD 25:U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., picks up the part of Hendry County that Hastings lost.Diaz-Balart’s seat continues to include a sliver of Broward County, more than half the voters in Collier County and around a fifth of voters in Miami-Dade County. Come November, Diaz-Balart should like his chances to keep this seat in the GOP fold.
CD 26: U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., already a top target for Democrats in 2016, can’t be happy with the state Supreme Court’s decision. Curbelo holds a swing district containing all of Monroe County and parts of Miami-Dade. But the court approved map makes this district more palatable for Democrats who are already are high on former Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairwoman Annette Taddeo’s chances. Curbelo will have a fight to keep this seat and the Supreme Court made it only tougher for him.
CD 27: U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., presides in this South Florida district. Already one of the most secure members of the Florida delegation, Ros-Lehtinen should be able to keep this seat with ease. But Democrats are starting to make inroads here and will be competitive against any Republican other than the current incumbent. But for 2016, Ros-Lehtinen should win with ease.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
