If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would easily sweep the election in swing states like Florida against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project found Clinton would win at least 268 votes in the Electoral College, the body which ultimately chooses who goes to the White House. That number puts her just two votes away from the 270 votes necessary to head to the Oval Office.
That’s not to say Trump wouldn’t win some states, but the states he would win would have smaller populations. The project survey found Trump would win 21 states if the election were held today, which would give him at least 179 votes.
According to Reuters, the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project gets its results from an online survey which gathers responses from about 16,000 people per week.
Respondents answer several questions, including questions about their demographic background, their party affiliation and who they’d select for president. Their responses are then weighted according to the latest population estimates, and each respondent is ranked according to their likelihood of voting.
After the poll is complete, the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project then tallies the levels of support and the estimated error for both Clinton and Trump, running many election simulations given the respondents’ support for each candidate.
The project runs more than 25 million simulations to adequately determine what the chances are that one candidate will win over the other.
Anything can happen, of course, between now and Nov. 8, but the results are generally consistent with polling both statewide and nationwide which has Clinton routing Trump by several points.
Polling in Florida has been a mixed bag. A poll released Wednesday, for example, showed Trump slightly ahead of Clinton leading the Secretary of State 43 percent to 41 percent.
Just a day before, a St. Leo University poll showed Clinton up by 14 points. Polls are still up in the air though, with the two candidates virtually neck-and-neck in several battleground states, and the race is only getting closer.
The final 10 weeks until the November election will undoubtedly be filled with television ads and both campaigns will be working overtime to get the message out to voters.
Turnout, too, will have an impact on election results. Both candidates will need to mobilize voters to get to the polls on Nov. 8. The polling project found Trump will need to turn out women and minority voters. If Trump can’t get a greater number of these voters to head to the polls, the project says he will lose the election.
Read more about the project here.
Reach reporter Allison Nielsen by email at allison@sunshinestatenews.com or follow her on Twitter: @AllisonNielsen.
